$101.73
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
CFL alternative · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $113.05–116.27 | +11.1% to +14.3% | wk low ’25-10-24, wk high ’25-08-29, wk low ’25-12-19 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $94.96 | -6.7% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $85.69 | -15.8% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $110.85 | +9.0% | top of R1 (wk high ’25-08-15, wk high ’25-07-18) |
APPENDIX · CCO.TO · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 8.3
| RS vs TSX (20) + sector (10) | 0.0 + 0.0 = 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 5 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 8.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 21.6
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 5 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — negative & falling | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 14.1 / 20 |
| Raw | 21.6 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 21.6 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (CCO.TO close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · TSX | 5 Established Down (−) → | -14.12% | -5.22% | Early Up ≥ 125.91 · Est. Down < 125.24 |
| Trend · XEG.TO | 5 Established Down (−) → | -22.98% | -7.51% | |
| Trading · TSX | 5 Established Down (−) → | -8.28% | -11.02% | Early Up ≥ 110.87 · Est. Down < 110.28 |
| Trading · XEG.TO | 5 Established Down (−) → | -6.65% | -9.99% | Early Up ≥ 108.91 · Est. Down < 108.33 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 101.73)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 116.45–119.51 | +14.5% to +17.5% | wk low 07-17 116.45 · wk low 07-31 117.75 · wk low 10-02 119.51 |
| R2 | 113.05–116.27 | +11.1% to +14.3% | wk low ’25-10-24 113.05 · wk high ’25-08-29 114.25 · wk low ’25-12-19 116.27 |
| R1 | 108.72–110.85 | +6.9% to +9.0% | wk high ’25-08-15 108.72 · wk high ’25-07-18 109.84 · wk low ’25-11-21 109.89 · wk high ’25-08-01 110.85 |
| S1 | 94.96–97.68 | -4.0% to -6.7% | wk low ’25-08-01 97.68 · wk low ’25-08-22 95.60 · wk low ’25-07-11 94.96 |
| S2 | 85.69–88.18 | -13.3% to -15.8% | wk high 2024-12-06 88.18 · wk high ’25-05-30 85.69 |
| S3 | 83.50–85.18 | -16.3% to -17.9% | wk high 2024-11-22 85.18 · wk high ’25-01-24 83.50 |
| ATH | 182.72 | +79.6% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 94.96 (-6.7%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 85.69–88.18.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 85.69 (-15.8%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 83.50–85.18.
- Trend vs TSX: above its 16-wk avg ≥ 125.91 · Est. Down < 125.24 (+23.1%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs TSX: Early Up ≥ 110.87 · Est. Down < 110.28.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
PAG Canadian Focus List alternative, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-09-01 (RBC PAG "Canadian Equity Grid Fall 2026" (September 2026 – November 2026; canadian_grid_en.pdf; Focus List names and Alternatives by recommended position size), Gmail (sc.assistant80@gmail.com), "USFL and CFL equity grids" from stephen.k.chang@rbc.com, Oct 21, 2026 3:20 PM PT; Focus List weights from the Sep 1, 2026 Canadian Focus List Quarterly report (unchanged)); Grid Alternative (Energy; no Focus List weight; recommended for <=2% positions). Benchmarks: S&P/TSX Composite (20 pts) and XEG.TO (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
