$37.32
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
CFL alternative · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $38.84–39.75 | +4.1% to +6.5% | wk high 04-10, wk low 02-27, wk high ’25-02-14 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $36.22 | -2.9% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $35.28 | -5.5% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $38.46 | +3.1% | top of R1 (wk high ’25-06-13, wk low ’25-10-10) |
APPENDIX · CAE.TO · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 55.2
| RS vs TSX (20) + sector (10) | 15.4 + 7.7 = 23.1 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 10 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 55.2 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Neutral |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Neutral |
| Trend (confirmed) | Neutral |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Neutral → 10-30 Neutral. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 88.4
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 10.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 14 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive & rising | 25.0 / 25 |
| Band position | 19.4 / 20 |
| Raw | 88.4 (Established Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 88.4 Established Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (CAE.TO close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · TSX | 2 Early Up (+) → | +4.41% | +7.28% | Est. Up ≥ 35.56 (-4.7%) · Early Up ≥ 34.57 · Est. Down < 34.38 |
| Trend · ZIN.TO | 2 Early Up (+) → | +4.79% | +7.13% | Est. Up ≥ 34.55 (-7.4%) · Est. Down < 32.70 |
| Trading · TSX | 1 Established Up (+) → | +6.90% | +3.60% | Est. Up ≥ 35.14 (-5.8%) · Est. Down < 26.12 |
| Trading · ZIN.TO | 1 Established Up (+) → | +2.70% | +0.73% | Est. Up ≥ 36.62 (-1.9%) · Est. Down < 27.75 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 37.32)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 40.27–41.38 | +7.9% to +10.9% | 61.8% 40.27 · wk high 08-14 40.31 · wk high ’25-10-31 40.55 · wk high ’25-08-15 40.88 · wk high ’25-07-25 40.96 · wk low 02-06 41.01 · wk high ’25-07-11 41.22 · wk high ’25-10-03 41.38 |
| R2 | 38.84–39.75 | +4.1% to +6.5% | wk high 04-10 38.84 · wk low 02-27 39.11 · wk high ’25-02-14 39.17 · wk high ’25-11-14 39.75 |
| R1 | 37.59–38.46 | +0.7% to +3.1% | wk high ’25-06-13 37.59 · wk low ’25-10-10 38.11 · wk high 07-10 38.16 · wk low ’25-08-01 38.46 |
| S1 | 36.22–37.31 | -0.0% to -2.9% | wk high 05-22 37.31 · wk high 05-08 37.25 · wk high ’25-05-16 37.16 · wk high ’25-03-28 36.94 · wk high 06-19 36.89 · 200-day SMA 36.78 · wk high ’25-01-03 36.68 · wk high 06-05 36.29 · 40-wk SMA 36.28 · wk low ’25-09-05 36.22 |
| S2 | 35.28–36.19 | -3.0% to -5.5% | wk high ’25-03-07 36.19 · wk low ’25-08-15 36.12 · wk low ’25-06-20 35.80 · wk low ’25-11-21 35.71 · wk high ’25-01-31 35.57 · wk high 10-02 35.48 · wk low 04-03 35.40 · wk low 03-20 35.28 |
| S3 | 34.12–34.89 | -6.5% to -8.6% | wk low 06-26 34.89 · wk low 04-24 34.12 |
| ATH | 47.65 | +27.7% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 36.22 (-2.9%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 35.28–36.19.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 35.28 (-5.5%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 34.12–34.89.
- Trend vs TSX: Est. Up ≥ 35.56 (-4.7%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 34.57 · Est. Down < 34.38 (-7.9%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs TSX: Est. Up ≥ 35.14 · Est. Down < 26.12.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
PAG Canadian Focus List alternative, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-09-01 (RBC PAG "Canadian Equity Grid Fall 2026" (September 2026 – November 2026; canadian_grid_en.pdf; Focus List names and Alternatives by recommended position size), Gmail (sc.assistant80@gmail.com), "USFL and CFL equity grids" from stephen.k.chang@rbc.com, Oct 21, 2026 3:20 PM PT; Focus List weights from the Sep 1, 2026 Canadian Focus List Quarterly report (unchanged)); Grid Alternative (Industrials; no Focus List weight; recommended for 2.5% positions). Benchmarks: S&P/TSX Composite (20 pts) and ZIN.TO (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
