$240.56
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
CFL constituent · entry card
APPENDIX · BMO.TO · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 36.7
| RS vs TSX (20) + sector (10) | 2.0 + 0.0 = 2.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 20 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 36.7 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 70.3
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 18.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 18 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive & rising | 25.0 / 25 |
| Band position | 9.3 / 20 |
| Raw | 70.3 (Early Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 70.3 Early Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (BMO.TO close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · TSX | 5 Established Down (+) → | -1.11% | +2.77% | Est. Up ≥ 274.16 (+14.0%) · Early Up ≥ 241.50 · Est. Down < 240.21 |
| Trend · XFN.TO | 5 Established Down (−) → | -2.39% | -0.95% | Est. Up ≥ 257.30 (+7.0%) · Early Up ≥ 245.55 · Est. Down < 244.25 |
| Trading · TSX | 1 Established Up (−) ↑ | +1.98% | -0.35% | Est. Up ≥ 236.76 (-1.6%) · Est. Down < 215.52 |
| Trading · XFN.TO | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -0.61% | -1.46% | Est. Up ≥ 250.58 (+4.2%) · Early Up ≥ 242.59 · Est. Down < 241.29 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 240.56)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R2 | 258.21–259.20 | +7.3% to +7.7% | wk high 07-17 258.21 · ATH 08-17 259.20 |
| R1 | 244.80–249.59 | +1.8% to +3.8% | wk high 09-04 244.80 · wk low 07-31 245.98 · wk high 09-25 249.59 |
| S1 | 227.10–232.01 | -3.6% to -5.6% | wk low 09-04 232.01 · wk low 10-09 227.10 |
| S2 | 219.75–223.75 | -7.0% to -8.7% | 40-wk SMA 223.75 · 200-day SMA 222.75 · 50% 219.75 |
| S3 | 210.44–212.74 | -11.6% to -12.5% | wk high 05-08 212.74 · wk high 04-24 210.73 · 61.8% 210.44 |
| ATH | 259.20 | +7.7% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 227.10 (-5.6%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 219.75–223.75.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 219.75 (-8.7%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 210.44–212.74.
- Trend vs TSX: Est. Up ≥ 274.16 (+14.0%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 241.50 · Est. Down < 240.21 (-0.1%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs TSX: Est. Up ≥ 236.76 · Est. Down < 215.52.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
PAG Canadian Focus List holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-09-01 (RBC PAG "Canadian Equity Grid Fall 2026" (September 2026 – November 2026; canadian_grid_en.pdf; Focus List names and Alternatives by recommended position size), Gmail (sc.assistant80@gmail.com), "USFL and CFL equity grids" from stephen.k.chang@rbc.com, Oct 21, 2026 3:20 PM PT; Focus List weights from the Sep 1, 2026 Canadian Focus List Quarterly report (unchanged)); List weight 2.50%. Benchmarks: S&P/TSX Composite (20 pts) and XFN.TO (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
