$28.80
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
CFL alternative · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $30.96–31.70 | +7.5% to +10.1% | wk low ’25-12-26, wk high ’25-04-25, wk low ’25-11-07 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below N/A | N/A | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | No support nearby | — | only one support band below the price (AUDITFIX_V1) |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $29.68 | +3.1% | top of R1 (wk low ’25-05-09, wk high 10-16) |
APPENDIX · BCE.TO · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 5.0
| RS vs TSX (20) + sector (10) | 2.0 + 1.0 = 3.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 0 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 5.0 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 0/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 72.0
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 10.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 0 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive & rising | 25.0 / 25 |
| Band position | 17.0 / 20 |
| Raw | 72.0 (Early Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 72.0 Early Up |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (BCE.TO close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · TSX | 5 Established Down (+) → | -5.61% | +0.71% | Est. Up ≥ 32.99 (+14.5%) · Early Up ≥ 30.22 · Est. Down < 30.06 |
| Trend · ^GSPTSE | 5 Established Down (+) → | -5.61% | +0.71% | Est. Up ≥ 32.99 (+14.5%) · Early Up ≥ 30.22 · Est. Down < 30.06 |
| Trading · TSX | 1 Established Up (+) ↑ | +2.59% | +4.78% | Est. Up ≥ 28.16 (-2.2%) · Est. Down < 24.47 |
| Trading · ^GSPTSE | 1 Established Up (+) ↑ | +2.59% | +4.78% | Est. Up ≥ 28.16 (-2.2%) · Est. Down < 24.47 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 28.80)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 31.97–32.71 | +11.0% to +13.6% | wk low 04-17 31.97 · wk low ’25-01-03 31.99 · wk high ’25-05-09 32.16 · wk low 08-28 32.31 · 40-wk SMA 32.43 · 200-day SMA 32.52 · wk low 05-22 32.71 |
| R2 | 30.96–31.70 | +7.5% to +10.1% | wk low ’25-12-26 30.96 · wk high ’25-04-25 31.15 · wk low ’25-11-07 31.33 · wk low ’25-08-08 31.35 · wk high ’25-06-13 31.36 · wk low ’25-11-21 31.41 · wk low ’25-01-17 31.43 · wk low ’25-02-07 31.46 · wk low ’25-10-17 31.58 · wk low 05-01 31.70 |
| R1 | 29.10–29.68 | +1.0% to +3.1% | wk low ’25-05-09 29.10 · wk high 10-16 29.14 · wk low ’25-05-30 29.17 · wk low 07-10 29.66 · wk low ’25-06-27 29.68 |
| S1–S3 | N/A | N/A | no support band: no 2 or more tools cluster within 3% below the price |
| ATH | 74.09 | +157.3% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < N/A: trading downgrades one state, re-anchor: no support nearby.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): No support nearby: only one support band exists below the price, so there is no separate trend stop.
- Trend vs TSX: Est. Up ≥ 32.99 (+14.5%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 30.22 · Est. Down < 30.06 (+4.4%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs TSX: Est. Up ≥ 28.16 · Est. Down < 24.47.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
PAG Canadian Focus List alternative, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-09-01 (RBC PAG "Canadian Equity Grid Fall 2026" (September 2026 – November 2026; canadian_grid_en.pdf; Focus List names and Alternatives by recommended position size), Gmail (sc.assistant80@gmail.com), "USFL and CFL equity grids" from stephen.k.chang@rbc.com, Oct 21, 2026 3:20 PM PT; Focus List weights from the Sep 1, 2026 Canadian Focus List Quarterly report (unchanged)); Grid Alternative (Communication Services; no Focus List weight; recommended for 2.5% positions). Benchmarks: S&P/TSX Composite (20 pts) and ^GSPTSE (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
