ATD.TO
Alimentation Couche-Tard
$81.77
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
CFL constituent · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $84.67–86.04 | +3.5% to +5.2% | wk high 03-20, wk high 06-12, wk high 10-23 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $79.85 | -2.3% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $76.79 | -6.1% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $83.73 | +2.4% | top of R1 (wk high 04-10, 50% retr.) |
APPENDIX · ATD.TO · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 23.3
| RS vs TSX (20) + sector (10) | 0.0 + 0.0 = 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 14 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 23.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 51.4
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 13 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive but decelerating | 12.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 5.9 / 20 |
| Raw | 51.4 (Neutral) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 51.4 Neutral |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (ATD.TO close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · TSX | 5 Established Down (−) → | -3.04% | -1.50% | Est. Up ≥ 102.96 (+25.9%) · Early Up ≥ 83.19 · Est. Down < 82.75 |
| Trend · XST.TO | 5 Established Down (−) → | -6.49% | -1.69% | Est. Up ≥ 100.02 (+22.3%) · Early Up ≥ 86.61 · Est. Down < 86.15 |
| Trading · TSX | 1 Established Up (+) ↑ | +0.45% | +3.67% | Est. Up ≥ 81.66 (-0.1%) · Est. Down < 72.57 |
| Trading · XST.TO | 5 Established Down (−) → | -1.58% | -0.33% | Est. Up ≥ 87.41 (+6.9%) · Early Up ≥ 83.24 · Est. Down < 82.80 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 81.77)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 93.68–95.15 | +14.6% to +16.4% | wk high 08-14 93.68 · ATH 06-24 95.15 |
| R2 | 84.67–86.04 | +3.5% to +5.2% | wk high 03-20 84.67 · wk high 06-12 85.58 · wk high 10-23 86.04 |
| R1 | 81.81–83.73 | +0.0% to +2.4% | wk high 04-10 81.81 · 50% 81.85 · 200-day SMA 82.24 · 40-wk SMA 82.42 · wk high 09-18 82.48 · wk high 2024-11-15 82.50 · wk high 2024-12-06 83.73 |
| S1 | 79.85–81.48 | -0.4% to -2.3% | wk high 05-01 81.48 · wk high ’25-07-18 80.96 · wk high 05-22 79.85 |
| S2 | 76.79–78.72 | -3.7% to -6.1% | 61.8% 78.72 · wk low 2024-12-20 78.08 · wk high ’25-01-31 77.86 · wk low 05-15 77.46 · wk low 05-29 76.81 · wk high ’25-11-28 76.79 |
| S3 | 74.06–76.31 | -6.7% to -9.4% | wk high ’25-09-05 76.31 · wk low 04-17 76.08 · wk low 10-09 75.90 · wk low 03-20 75.81 · wk high ’25-10-03 75.56 · … +4 more · wk high ’25-06-13 74.81 · wk high ’25-04-25 74.38 · wk high ’25-03-07 74.28 · wk high ’25-04-04 74.24 · wk low ’25-01-17 74.06 |
| ATH | 95.15 | +16.4% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 79.85 (-2.3%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 76.79–78.72.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 76.79 (-6.1%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 74.06–76.31.
- Trend vs TSX: Est. Up ≥ 102.96 (+25.9%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 83.19 · Est. Down < 82.75 (+1.2%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs TSX: Est. Up ≥ 81.66 · Est. Down < 72.57.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
PAG Canadian Focus List holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-09-01 (RBC PAG "Canadian Equity Grid Fall 2026" (September 2026 – November 2026; canadian_grid_en.pdf; Focus List names and Alternatives by recommended position size), Gmail (sc.assistant80@gmail.com), "USFL and CFL equity grids" from stephen.k.chang@rbc.com, Oct 21, 2026 3:20 PM PT; Focus List weights from the Sep 1, 2026 Canadian Focus List Quarterly report (unchanged)); List weight 5.00%. Benchmarks: S&P/TSX Composite (20 pts) and XST.TO (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
