$234.19
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
CFL alternative · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $244.39–249.70 | +4.4% to +6.6% | wk high ’25-11-14, wk high ’25-12-05, wk high ’25-12-26 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $220.12 | -6.0% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $206.25 | -11.9% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $242.38 | +3.5% | top of R1 (61.8% retr., wk low 03-20) |
APPENDIX · AEM.TO · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 31.0
| RS vs TSX (20) + sector (10) | 4.6 + 9.0 = 13.6 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 5 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 31.0 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 16.1
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 2.3 / 30 |
| Structure | 3 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — negative & falling | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 8.3 / 20 |
| Raw | 16.1 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 16.1 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (AEM.TO close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · TSX | 4 Early Down (−) → | -8.70% | -12.43% | Est. Up ≥ 257.39 (+9.9%) · Est. Down < 172.88 |
| Trend · XGD.TO | 1 Established Up (−) → | +3.14% | -1.04% | Est. Up ≥ 225.28 (-3.8%) · Est. Down < 191.34 |
| Trading · TSX | 5 Established Down (−) → | -5.66% | -2.70% | Est. Up ≥ 310.22 (+32.5%) · Early Up ≥ 248.69 · Est. Down < 247.36 |
| Trading · XGD.TO | 4 Early Down (−) ↓ | -0.42% | -0.34% | Est. Up ≥ 236.03 (+0.8%) · Est. Down < 229.64 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 234.19)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 254.67–260.71 | +8.7% to +11.3% | wk high 05-29 254.67 · wk high 06-19 255.61 · wk low 02-06 256.32 · 50% 258.35 · 40-wk SMA 260.71 |
| R2 | 244.39–249.70 | +4.4% to +6.6% | wk high ’25-11-14 244.39 · wk high ’25-12-05 245.63 · wk high ’25-12-26 249.70 |
| R1 | 236.97–242.38 | +1.2% to +3.5% | 61.8% 236.97 · wk low 03-20 241.01 · wk low 05-08 242.38 |
| S1 | 220.12–226.60 | -3.2% to -6.0% | wk low 01-02 226.60 · wk high 07-10 224.87 · wk low ’25-10-10 224.50 · wk low ’25-12-12 222.06 · wk low ’25-11-21 220.12 |
| S2 | 206.25–211.11 | -9.9% to -11.9% | wk low ’25-10-31 211.11 · wk low 06-12 211.10 · wk low ’25-09-19 206.25 |
| S3 | 188.48–189.47 | -19.1% to -19.5% | wk high ’25-08-08 189.47 · wk low 07-17 188.48 |
| ATH | 348.94 | +49.0% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 220.12 (-6.0%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 206.25–211.11.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 206.25 (-11.9%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 188.48–189.47.
- Trend vs TSX: Est. Up ≥ 257.39 (+9.9%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 257.39 · Est. Down < 172.88 (-26.2%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs TSX: Est. Up ≥ 310.22 · Early Up ≥ 248.69 · Est. Down < 247.36.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
PAG Canadian Focus List alternative, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-09-01 (RBC PAG "Canadian Equity Grid Fall 2026" (September 2026 – November 2026; canadian_grid_en.pdf; Focus List names and Alternatives by recommended position size), Gmail (sc.assistant80@gmail.com), "USFL and CFL equity grids" from stephen.k.chang@rbc.com, Oct 21, 2026 3:20 PM PT; Focus List weights from the Sep 1, 2026 Canadian Focus List Quarterly report (unchanged)); Grid Alternative (Basic Materials; no Focus List weight; recommended for 2.5% positions). Benchmarks: S&P/TSX Composite (20 pts) and XGD.TO (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
