$21.10
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
CFL constituent · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $22.05–22.33 | +4.5% to +5.8% | wk low 07-24, wk high 05-29, 40-wk SMA |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $20.07 | -4.9% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $19.18 | -9.1% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $21.68 | +2.7% | top of R1 (wk low 2024-12-20, wk high 02-13) |
APPENDIX · AC.TO · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 23.3
| RS vs TSX (20) + sector (10) | 0.0 + 0.0 = 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 14 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 23.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Neutral → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 12.3
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 3 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — BOUNCE tag — oversold & turning up inside a down structure (no boost) | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 6.8 / 20 |
| Raw | 12.3 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 12.3 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (AC.TO close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · TSX | 5 Established Down (−) → | -19.92% | -6.75% | Est. Up ≥ 27.29 (+29.3%) · Early Up ≥ 25.44 · Est. Down < 25.31 |
| Trend · ZIN.TO | 5 Established Down (−) → | -19.78% | -6.88% | Est. Up ≥ 25.47 (+20.7%) · Est. Down < 25.34 |
| Trading · TSX | 5 Established Down (−) → | -1.31% | -1.57% | Est. Up ≥ 25.50 (+20.9%) · Early Up ≥ 21.38 · Est. Down < 21.26 |
| Trading · ZIN.TO | 5 Established Down (−) → | -5.21% | -4.30% | Est. Up ≥ 26.94 (+27.7%) · Early Up ≥ 22.29 · Est. Down < 22.17 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 21.10)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 24.95–25.50 | +18.2% to +20.9% | wk high 06-26 24.95 · wk high 2024-11-15 24.99 · wk low 08-14 25.20 · wk high 07-10 25.50 |
| R2 | 22.05–22.33 | +4.5% to +5.8% | wk low 07-24 22.05 · wk high 05-29 22.20 · 40-wk SMA 22.32 · 200-day SMA 22.33 |
| R1 | 21.21–21.68 | +0.5% to +2.7% | wk low 2024-12-20 21.21 · wk high 02-13 21.39 · wk high 02-27 21.68 |
| S1 | 20.07–20.59 | -2.4% to -4.9% | wk low ’25-07-18 20.59 · wk high 01-09 20.13 · wk high 05-08 20.10 · wk high ’25-12-26 20.07 |
| S2 | 19.18–19.61 | -7.1% to -9.1% | wk high ’25-05-30 19.61 · wk high ’25-05-16 19.54 · wk high ’25-02-14 19.42 · wk high ’25-09-26 19.33 · wk high ’25-06-13 19.22 · wk high ’25-11-14 19.20 · wk low 01-02 19.18 |
| S3 | 18.55–18.93 | -10.3% to -12.1% | wk high ’25-10-10 18.93 · wk low 01-30 18.72 · wk low ’25-08-22 18.68 · wk low ’25-08-08 18.55 |
| ATH | 52.71 | +149.8% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 20.07 (-4.9%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 19.18–19.61.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 19.18 (-9.1%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 18.55–18.93.
- Trend vs TSX: Est. Up ≥ 27.29 (+29.3%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 25.44 · Est. Down < 25.31 (+20.0%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs TSX: Est. Up ≥ 25.50 · Early Up ≥ 21.38 · Est. Down < 21.26.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
PAG Canadian Focus List holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-09-01 (RBC PAG "Canadian Equity Grid Fall 2026" (September 2026 – November 2026; canadian_grid_en.pdf; Focus List names and Alternatives by recommended position size), Gmail (sc.assistant80@gmail.com), "USFL and CFL equity grids" from stephen.k.chang@rbc.com, Oct 21, 2026 3:20 PM PT; Focus List weights from the Sep 1, 2026 Canadian Focus List Quarterly report (unchanged)); List weight 2.50%. Benchmarks: S&P/TSX Composite (20 pts) and ZIN.TO (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
