XIC.TO · Technical Trading Scorecard

APPENDIX · XIC (TSX) · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD

Held-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 55.33.

For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)

Level	Price	From close	Note
Buy zone	$54.97–56.47	-0.5% to -3.1%	wk low 09-18, wk low 07-24, wk low 10-02
Trading stop · daily close	below $54.97	-3.1%	trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 53.09–54.60
Breakout Buy Level	close above $58.32	+2.8%	top of R1 (wk high 06-19, wk low 08-21)
Trading (10–20 day) state	Neutral: Below 50-day; daily RS vs TSX EW Neutral.

Scores · Trend 76.7

RS vs TSX EW (20) + sector (10)	20.0 + 6.0 = 26.0 / 30
Structure (6 checks)	20 / 30
Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60	76.7 / 100
Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45)	Up
Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays)	confirmed Up
Trend (confirmed)	Up
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5 Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Up. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only).

Scores · Trading 47.2

RS (S&P 20 + sector 10)	8.0 + 6.0 / 30
Structure	8 / 25
Coppock (daily) — positive but decelerating	12.5 / 25
Band position	12.7 / 20
Raw	47.2 (Neutral)
Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2)	+0
Final	47.2 Neutral
✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5

Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)

Horizon · benchmark	State	RS vs SMA	RS chg	Phase-transition price (XIC (TSX) close needed)
Trend · TSX EW	1 Established Up (+) →	+2.37%	+1.45%	Est. Up ≥ 55.82 (-1.6%) · Early Up ≥ 55.65 · Est. Down < 55.36
Trend · S&P/TSX	3 Neutral (+) →	-0.05%	+0.03%	Est. Up ≥ 57.08 (+0.6%) · Est. Down < 56.77
Trading · TSX EW	3 Neutral (−) ↓	-0.05%	-0.45%	Est. Up ≥ 56.95 (+0.4%) · Est. Down < 54.61
Trading · S&P/TSX	3 Neutral (+) →	+0.02%	+0.04%	Est. Up ≥ 56.90 (+0.3%) · Est. Down < 56.59

Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 56.75)

Band	Range	Distance	Tools in the cluster
R2	58.90–59.29	+3.8% to +4.5%	wk high 08-14 58.90 · ATH 08-26 59.29
R1	57.08–58.32	+0.6% to +2.8%	wk high 06-19 57.08 · wk low 08-21 57.90 · wk high 10-16 58.20 · wk high 09-25 58.32
S1	54.97–56.47	-0.5% to -3.1%	wk low 09-18 56.47 · wk low 07-24 55.81 · wk low 10-02 55.73 · 40-wk SMA 55.33 · 200-day SMA 55.30 · wk low 07-10 55.24 · wk high 04-17 54.97
S2	53.09–54.60	-3.8% to -6.4%	50% 54.60 · wk low 06-12 54.40 · 61.8% 53.49 · wk high 01-30 53.38 · wk low 05-01 53.09
S3	49.90–51.39	-9.4% to -12.1%	wk high ’25-12-26 51.39 · wk low 01-30 50.68 · wk low 01-02 50.53 · wk low 03-20 49.90
ATH	59.29	+4.5%	all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used)

Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)

Stops & phase transitions

Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 54.97 (-3.1%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 53.09–54.60.
Trend Breakdown (reference, S2 floor): Friday close < 53.09 (-6.4%): information only, no verdict impact. Next support S3 49.90–51.39.
Trend vs TSX EW: Est. Up ≥ 55.82 (-1.6%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 55.65 · Est. Down < 55.36 (-2.4%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
Trading vs TSX EW: Est. Up ≥ 56.95 · Est. Down < 54.61.

Sluymer context

CB Oct 13 p11: “The TSX’s uptrend remains intact but has stalled near its extension level at 36K with support in a band between 34,544-33,233.” “Weekly Quadrant Balance is neutral.”
CB Oct 13 p12: “The TSX has pulled back to support near its 100-day ma at 34,542 with early signs of a short-term bottom developing.” Relative trend vs the S&P 500 “remains weak but oversold short-term.”
CB Oct 13: “Rate-sensitive stocks, such as ENB, TRP, PPL, FTS and H are becoming oversold with early signs of bottoming near support.”
CB Oct 13: CADUSD “weak but oversold short-term challenging next support at 0.70”; US 10-yr “beginning to stall” at 5.35%.

Notes & caveats

Benchmarks: TSX equal-weight proxy (20 pts) and S&P/TSX (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Holder levels (simple S/R: 40-wk SMA, 200-day SMA, 50%/61.8% retracements, 2-yr weekly swings and prior breakouts, ATH; ≥2 tools within 3% per band): Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next band above it, else the ATH, else none (blue sky); Trade Breakdown = the 40-wk SMA (Friday close below it = flag, verdict REVIEW); Trend Breakdown (S2 floor) and Profit-Taking are reference only and do not change the verdict. Trend Score (8–16 wk) = relative strength (30 pts) + structure (30 pts) rescaled to 100: Up ≥ 60, Neutral 45–59, Down < 45, confirmed after two consecutive Friday closes; descriptive, not a forecast. ETF (S&P/TSX tracker): relative strength is measured vs an equal-weight S&P/TSX proxy built from ~213 current Composite members (daily mean return; no listed TSX equal-weight ETF on Yahoo; survivorship bias); the cap-weight TSX sits in the sector slot. Rates modifier uses the US 10-yr (Sluymer's global rate gauge). Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of ~210 current S&P/TSX Composite members (dashboard universe) with a rising weekly Coppock, in the spirit of his TSX Quadrant Balance; survivorship bias; regime input only. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).

Breakout Level confirms hold	Friday close above $58.32	+2.8%	top of R1 (wk high 06-19, wk low 08-21)
Profit-Taking Zone (ref.) reference · rebalance if overweight	$58.90–59.29	+3.8% to +4.5%	wk high 08-14, ATH 08-26
Trade Breakdown review thesis, no trade	Friday close below $55.33	-2.5%	40-wk SMA 55.33
Trend Breakdown (ref.) reference · no verdict impact	Friday close below $53.09	-6.4%	trend stop; next support $49.90–51.39

XIC TSX ETF

Trend health

Key levels for holders