TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
WPM TSX
Wheaton Precious Metals · held position
Last Price (CAD) $164.54
Unrealized G/L +135.4% (+C$19,499)
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30) · CAD
Portfolio weight 1.86% (Canada)
REVIEWHigh risk · consider trim 50%High risk: Trend Down (score 28); Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA ($184.75). Consider trimming 50% if the story has weakened.
Trend health
Trend Score (8–16 wk)
● Down
Score 28/100. Lags S&P/TSX and sector; below falling 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Lagging the S&P/TSX for 2 weeks (-13.0% relative)
Lagging TSX gold (XGD) for 2 weeks (-1.7% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $170.16 | +3.4% | top of R1 (wk low 05-08, wk low 05-22) |
Profit-Taking Zone (ref.)
reference · rebalance if overweight | $175.88–176.83 | +6.9% to +7.5% | 50% retr., wk low 02-06 |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | TRIGGERED · reclaim $184.75 | +12.3% | 40-wk SMA 184.75 |
Trend Breakdown (ref.)
reference · no verdict impact | Friday close below $155.67 | -5.4% | trend stop; next support $148.91–153.08 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (40-wk SMA; triggered at $184.75): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (reference only) (Friday close < $155.67): no verdict impact; reassess if the story has also weakened. Next support $148.91–153.08.
Sluymer's view: Agrees. Last named Aug 18: “WPM is also at its next extension level between 184-194 where a near-term pause is likely” (CB Aug 18); gold has since broken 4273 support (CB Oct 13).
Watch this week: Fri Nov 6: a Friday close ≥ $142.23 (-13.6%) keeps RS vs the S&P/TSX at Early Down or better; a Friday close back above the 40-wk SMA $184.75 clears the Trade Breakdown.
APPENDIX · WPM (TSX) · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARDHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 184.75 (already below on the Friday close: Trade Breakdown triggered).
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $160.44–163.89 | -0.4% to -2.5% | 61.8% retr., wk high ’25-10-17 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $160.44 | -2.5% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 155.67–158.88 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $170.16 | +3.4% | top of R1 (wk low 05-08, wk low 05-22) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Established Down: Below 50-day; daily RS vs S&P/TSX Est. Down. |
Scores · Trend 28.2
| RS vs S&P/TSX (20) + sector (10) | 4.6 + 2.3 = 6.9 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 10 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 28.2 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 23.1
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 3 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — negative & falling | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 17.6 / 20 |
| Raw | 23.1 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 23.1 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (WPM (TSX) close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P/TSX | 4 Early Down (−) → | -12.98% | -13.04% | Est. Up ≥ 189.77 (+15.3%) · Est. Down < 142.23 |
| Trend · XGD | 4 Early Down (−) → | -1.66% | -1.74% | Est. Up ≥ 165.98 (+0.9%) · Est. Down < 156.24 |
| Trading · S&P/TSX | 5 Established Down (−) → | -5.81% | -2.55% | Early Up ≥ 174.49 · Est. Down < 173.56 |
| Trading · XGD | 5 Established Down (−) → | -0.56% | -0.18% | Est. Up ≥ 182.87 (+11.1%) · Early Up ≥ 165.58 · Est. Down < 164.70 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 164.54)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 184.75–187.01 | +12.3% to +13.7% | 40-wk SMA 184.75 · wk high 05-29 185.36 · 200-day SMA 185.57 · wk high 06-19 186.62 · wk low 10-02 187.01 |
| R2 | 175.88–176.83 | +6.9% to +7.5% | 50% 175.88 · wk low 02-06 176.83 |
| R1 | 168.30–170.16 | +2.3% to +3.4% | wk low 05-08 168.30 · wk low 05-22 169.49 · wk high ’25-12-26 170.16 |
| S1 | 160.44–163.89 | -0.4% to -2.5% | 61.8% 163.89 · wk high ’25-10-17 160.44 |
| S2 | 155.67–158.88 | -3.4% to -5.4% | wk high ’25-10-03 158.88 · wk low 01-02 157.26 · wk low 03-20 155.67 |
| S3 | 148.91–153.08 | -7.0% to -9.5% | wk high ’25-11-14 153.08 · wk high ’25-09-12 150.50 · wk low 06-12 148.91 |
| ATH | 226.68 | +37.8% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 160.44 (-2.5%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 155.67–158.88.
- Trend Breakdown (reference, S2 floor): Friday close < 155.67 (-5.4%): information only, no verdict impact. Next support S3 148.91–153.08.
- Trend vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 189.77 (+15.3%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 189.77 · Est. Down < 142.23 (-13.6%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P/TSX: Early Up ≥ 174.49 · Est. Down < 173.56.
Sluymer context
- CB Aug 18 p62: “WPM is also at its next extension level between 184-194 where a near-term pause is likely.”
- CB Oct 13: “Gold broke below 4273 support challenging its next support band between 4053-4176”; weekly: “a break below 3943 support would signal a failed bottoming pattern”.
- CB Oct 13: “Rate-sensitive stocks, such as ENB, TRP, PPL, FTS and H are becoming oversold with early signs of bottoming near support.”
- CB Oct 13: CADUSD “weak but oversold short-term challenging next support at 0.70”; US 10-yr “beginning to stall” at 5.35%.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P/TSX Composite (20 pts) and XGD (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Holder levels (simple S/R: 40-wk SMA, 200-day SMA, 50%/61.8% retracements, 2-yr weekly swings and prior breakouts, ATH; ≥2 tools within 3% per band): Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next band above it, else the ATH, else none (blue sky); Trade Breakdown = the 40-wk SMA (Friday close below it = flag, verdict REVIEW); Trend Breakdown (S2 floor) and Profit-Taking are reference only and do not change the verdict. Trend Score (8–16 wk) = relative strength (30 pts) + structure (30 pts) rescaled to 100: Up ≥ 60, Neutral 45–59, Down < 45, confirmed after two consecutive Friday closes; descriptive, not a forecast. Rates modifier uses the US 10-yr (Sluymer's global rate gauge). Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of ~210 current S&P/TSX Composite members (dashboard universe) with a rising weekly Coppock, in the spirit of his TSX Quadrant Balance; survivorship bias; regime input only. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).