TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
TIH TSX
Toromont Industries · held position
Last Price (CAD) $209.40
Unrealized G/L +29.5% (+C$8,388)
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30) · CAD
Portfolio weight 1.88% (Canada)
REVIEWTrend is Down (score 23) and Friday close below the 40-wk SMA ($211.12). No trade yet: re-check the thesis.
Trend health
Trend Score (8–16 wk)
● Down
Score 23/100. Lags S&P/TSX and sector; below rising 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Lagging the S&P/TSX for 4 weeks (-18.5% relative)
Lagging TSX industrials (ZIN) for 4 weeks (-15.0% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $215.58 | +3.0% | top of R1 (200-day SMA, wk low 05-22) |
Profit-Taking Zone (ref.)
reference · rebalance if overweight | $225.88–229.24 | +7.9% to +9.5% | wk high 05-15, wk high 05-29, wk high 08-07 |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | TRIGGERED · reclaim $211.12 | +0.8% | 40-wk SMA 211.12 |
Trend Breakdown (ref.)
reference · no verdict impact | Friday close below $187.42 | -10.5% | trend stop; next support $167.61–171.89 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (40-wk SMA; triggered at $211.12): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (reference only) (Friday close < $187.42): no verdict impact; reassess if the story has also weakened. Next support $167.61–171.89.
Sluymer's view: Partly agrees. “TIH’s rebound continues but is becoming overbought short-term after the strong rebound in September” (CB Sep 29).
Watch this week: Fri Nov 6: a Friday close ≥ $208.40 (-0.5%) lifts RS vs the S&P/TSX off Est. Down; a Friday close back above the 40-wk SMA $211.12 clears the Trade Breakdown.
APPENDIX · TIH (TSX) · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARDHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 211.12 (already below on the Friday close: Trade Breakdown triggered).
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $199.04–204.30 | -2.4% to -4.9% | wk low 06-19, wk low 05-01, 50% retr. |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $199.04 | -4.9% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 187.42–189.33 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $215.58 | +3.0% | top of R1 (200-day SMA, wk low 05-22) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Early Down: Above 50-day; daily RS vs S&P/TSX Early Up. |
Scores · Trend 23.3
| RS vs S&P/TSX (20) + sector (10) | 0.0 + 0.0 = 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 14 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 23.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 32.2
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 15.4 + 1.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 8 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — BOUNCE tag — oversold & turning up inside a down structure (no boost) | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 5.3 / 20 |
| Raw | 32.2 (Early Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 32.2 Early Down |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (TIH (TSX) close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P/TSX | 5 Established Down (−) → | -8.20% | -6.49% | Est. Up ≥ 276.52 (+32.1%) · Early Up ≥ 209.51 · Est. Down < 208.40 |
| Trend · ZIN | 5 Established Down (−) → | -7.77% | -6.62% | Est. Up ≥ 257.59 (+23.0%) · Early Up ≥ 209.27 · Est. Down < 208.15 |
| Trading · S&P/TSX | 2 Early Up (+) ↑ | +3.66% | +5.35% | Est. Up ≥ 237.25 (+13.3%) · Early Up ≥ 201.79 · Est. Down < 200.72 |
| Trading · ZIN | 5 Established Down (+) → | -0.43% | +2.43% | Est. Up ≥ 251.02 (+19.9%) · Early Up ≥ 210.36 · Est. Down < 209.23 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 209.40)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 236.64–243.50 | +13.0% to +16.3% | wk high 07-24 236.64 · wk high 10-09 240.81 · ATH 06-18 243.50 |
| R2 | 225.88–229.24 | +7.9% to +9.5% | wk high 05-15 225.88 · wk high 05-29 229.16 · wk high 08-07 229.24 |
| R1 | 209.87–215.58 | +0.2% to +3.0% | 200-day SMA 209.87 · wk low 05-22 210.25 · 40-wk SMA 211.12 · wk high 04-17 214.62 · wk high 03-06 215.58 |
| S1 | 199.04–204.30 | -2.4% to -4.9% | wk low 06-19 204.30 · wk low 05-01 202.29 · 50% 199.68 · wk low 07-31 199.04 |
| S2 | 187.42–189.33 | -9.6% to -10.5% | 61.8% 189.33 · wk low 03-27 187.44 · wk low 09-04 187.42 |
| S3 | 167.61–171.89 | -17.9% to -20.0% | wk low 01-30 171.89 · wk high ’25-10-31 168.56 · wk high ’25-12-19 168.46 · wk high ’25-11-28 167.61 |
| ATH | 243.50 | +16.3% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 199.04 (-4.9%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 187.42–189.33.
- Trend Breakdown (reference, S2 floor): Friday close < 187.42 (-10.5%): information only, no verdict impact. Next support S3 167.61–171.89.
- Trend vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 276.52 (+32.1%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 209.51 · Est. Down < 208.40 (-0.5%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 237.25 · Early Up ≥ 201.79 · Est. Down < 200.72.
Sluymer context
- CB Sep 22 p58: “TIH is tracking the profile of AI/semiconductors with its Q3 correction bottoming near 190.”
- CB Sep 29 p59: “TIH’s rebound continues but is becoming overbought short-term (top right) after the strong rebound in September.”
- CB Oct 13: “Rate-sensitive stocks, such as ENB, TRP, PPL, FTS and H are becoming oversold with early signs of bottoming near support.”
- CB Oct 13: CADUSD “weak but oversold short-term challenging next support at 0.70”; US 10-yr “beginning to stall” at 5.35%.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P/TSX Composite (20 pts) and ZIN (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Holder levels (simple S/R: 40-wk SMA, 200-day SMA, 50%/61.8% retracements, 2-yr weekly swings and prior breakouts, ATH; ≥2 tools within 3% per band): Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next band above it, else the ATH, else none (blue sky); Trade Breakdown = the 40-wk SMA (Friday close below it = flag, verdict REVIEW); Trend Breakdown (S2 floor) and Profit-Taking are reference only and do not change the verdict. Trend Score (8–16 wk) = relative strength (30 pts) + structure (30 pts) rescaled to 100: Up ≥ 60, Neutral 45–59, Down < 45, confirmed after two consecutive Friday closes; descriptive, not a forecast. Sector proxy ZIN (BMO equal-weight industrials); no iShares TSX industrials ETF. Rates modifier uses the US 10-yr (Sluymer's global rate gauge). Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of ~210 current S&P/TSX Composite members (dashboard universe) with a rising weekly Coppock, in the spirit of his TSX Quadrant Balance; survivorship bias; regime input only. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).