TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
SU TSX
Suncor Energy Inc · held position
Last Price (CAD) $105.43
Unrealized G/L +224.0% (+C$29,446)
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30) · CAD
Portfolio weight 2.48% (Canada)
HOLDKeep the full position: trend Up, Friday close above the 40-wk SMA ($89.01). Profit-Taking is reference only.
Trend health
Trend Score (8–16 wk)
● Up
Score 98/100. Leads S&P/TSX and sector; above rising 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Leading the S&P/TSX for 12 weeks (+35.4% relative)
Leading TSX energy (XEG) for 8 weeks (+8.0% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $112.80 | +7.0% | top of R1 (ATH 10-22) |
Profit-Taking Zone (ref.)
reference · rebalance if overweight | — | blue sky | none: blue sky above the Breakout |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | Friday close below $89.01 | -15.6% | 40-wk SMA 89.01 |
Trend Breakdown (ref.)
reference · no verdict impact | Friday close below $89.83 | -14.8% | trend stop; next support $88.27–89.54 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (40-wk SMA; Friday close < $89.01): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (reference only) (Friday close < $89.83): no verdict impact; reassess if the story has also weakened. Next support $88.27–89.54.
Sluymer's view: Agrees. “SU continues to consolidate near its summer highs with first support in the low-mid 90s” (CB Oct 6).
Watch this week: Fri Nov 6: a Friday close ≥ $97.01 (-8.0%) keeps RS vs the S&P/TSX at Est. Up or better; a Friday close below the 40-wk SMA $89.01 is the Trade Breakdown.
APPENDIX · SU (TSX) · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARDHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 89.01.
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $94.22–96.53 | -8.4% to -10.6% | wk high 05-22, wk high 05-08, wk high 08-21 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $94.22 | -10.6% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 89.83–92.55 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $112.80 | +7.0% | top of R1 (ATH 10-22) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Neutral: Above 50-day; daily RS vs S&P/TSX Early Down. |
Scores · Trend 98.3
| RS vs S&P/TSX (20) + sector (10) | 20.0 + 9.0 = 29.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 30 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 98.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Up |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Up |
| Trend (confirmed) | Up |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✔ No lower high vs cycle high 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Up. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 52.6
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 4.6 + 4.3 / 30 |
| Structure | 20 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive but decelerating | 12.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 11.2 / 20 |
| Raw | 52.6 (Neutral) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 52.6 Neutral |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (SU (TSX) close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P/TSX | 1 Established Up (+) → | +15.47% | +2.35% | Est. Up ≥ 97.01 (-8.0%) · Est. Down < 73.80 |
| Trend · XEG | 1 Established Up (−) → | +4.34% | -0.12% | Est. Up ≥ 106.84 (+1.3%) · Est. Down < 99.28 |
| Trading · S&P/TSX | 4 Early Down (−) → | -2.04% | -1.01% | Est. Up ≥ 107.91 (+2.4%) · Est. Down < 105.75 |
| Trading · XEG | 4 Early Down (+) → | -0.26% | +0.14% | Est. Up ≥ 105.97 (+0.5%) · Est. Down < 105.39 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 105.43)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R1 | 112.80–112.80 | +7.0% to +7.0% | ATH 10-22 112.80 |
| S1 | 94.22–96.53 | -8.4% to -10.6% | wk high 05-22 96.53 · wk high 05-08 95.73 · wk high 08-21 95.50 · wk high 07-31 94.60 · wk high 04-03 94.34 · 50% 94.22 |
| S2 | 89.83–92.55 | -12.2% to -14.8% | wk low 09-25 92.55 · wk high 06-05 92.06 · 61.8% 89.83 |
| S3 | 88.27–89.54 | -15.1% to -16.3% | wk low 08-28 89.54 · 40-wk SMA 89.01 · 200-day SMA 88.27 |
| ATH | 112.80 | +7.0% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 94.22 (-10.6%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 89.83–92.55.
- Trend Breakdown (reference, S2 floor): Friday close < 89.83 (-14.8%): information only, no verdict impact. Next support S3 88.27–89.54.
- Trend vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 97.01 (-8.0%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 97.01 · Est. Down < 73.80 (-30.0%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 107.91 · Est. Down < 105.75.
Sluymer context
- CB Sep 15: “SU’s long-term technical profile remains positive but advanced short-term with 93 followed by 89 first near-term support.”
- CB Sep 22: “SU is also stalling at resistance near its Q2 highs with support starting between 91-94 followed by 85-88.”
- CB Sep 29: “SU continues to pause near its Q2 highs holding above first support near 90.”
- CB Oct 6: “SU continues to consolidate near its summer highs with first support in the low-mid 90s.”
- CB Oct 13: “Rate-sensitive stocks, such as ENB, TRP, PPL, FTS and H are becoming oversold with early signs of bottoming near support.”
- CB Oct 13: CADUSD “weak but oversold short-term challenging next support at 0.70”; US 10-yr “beginning to stall” at 5.35%.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P/TSX Composite (20 pts) and XEG (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Holder levels (simple S/R: 40-wk SMA, 200-day SMA, 50%/61.8% retracements, 2-yr weekly swings and prior breakouts, ATH; ≥2 tools within 3% per band): Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next band above it, else the ATH, else none (blue sky); Trade Breakdown = the 40-wk SMA (Friday close below it = flag, verdict REVIEW); Trend Breakdown (S2 floor) and Profit-Taking are reference only and do not change the verdict. Trend Score (8–16 wk) = relative strength (30 pts) + structure (30 pts) rescaled to 100: Up ≥ 60, Neutral 45–59, Down < 45, confirmed after two consecutive Friday closes; descriptive, not a forecast. Rates modifier uses the US 10-yr (Sluymer's global rate gauge). Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of ~210 current S&P/TSX Composite members (dashboard universe) with a rising weekly Coppock, in the spirit of his TSX Quadrant Balance; survivorship bias; regime input only. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).