TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
SHOP TSX
Shopify Inc · held position
Last Price (CAD) $200.19
Unrealized G/L +33.5% (+C$13,457)
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30) · CAD
Portfolio weight 3.26% (Canada)
HOLDKeep the full position: trend Up, Friday close above the 40-wk SMA ($178.68). Profit-Taking is reference only.
Trend health
Trend Score (8–16 wk)
● Up
Score 95/100. Leads S&P/TSX and sector; above rising 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Leading the S&P/TSX for 14 weeks (+36.4% relative)
Leading TSX tech (XIT) for 13 weeks (+21.3% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $217.29 | +8.5% | top of R1 (wk low 01-02, wk low ’25-12-19) |
Profit-Taking Zone (ref.)
reference · rebalance if overweight | $236.99–238.22 | +18.4% to +19.0% | wk high ’25-10-10, wk high 01-16, wk high ’25-12-19 |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | Friday close below $178.68 | -10.7% | 40-wk SMA 178.68 |
Trend Breakdown (ref.)
reference · no verdict impact | Friday close below $186.90 | -6.6% | trend stop; next support $180.17–185.44 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (40-wk SMA; Friday close < $178.68): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (reference only) (Friday close < $186.90): no verdict impact; reassess if the story has also weakened. Next support $180.17–185.44.
Sluymer's view: Agrees. “SHOP’s uptrend remains intact approaching next resistance between 252-253 where a short-term pause is likely” (CB Oct 13).
Watch this week: Fri Nov 6: a Friday close ≥ $204.12 (+2.0%) keeps RS vs the S&P/TSX at Est. Up or better; a Friday close below the 40-wk SMA $178.68 is the Trade Breakdown.
APPENDIX · SHOP (TSX) · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARDHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 178.68.
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $194.50–198.57 | -0.8% to -2.8% | wk low 08-21, wk low ’25-09-26 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $194.50 | -2.8% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 186.90–192.48 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $217.29 | +8.5% | top of R1 (wk low 01-02, wk low ’25-12-19) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Early Down: Below 50-day; daily RS vs S&P/TSX Est. Down. |
Scores · Trend 95.0
| RS vs S&P/TSX (20) + sector (10) | 18.0 + 9.0 = 27.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 30 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 95.0 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Up |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Up |
| Trend (confirmed) | Up |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✔ No lower high vs cycle high 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Up. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 35.7
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 15 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — negative & falling | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 18.2 / 20 |
| Raw | 35.7 (Early Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 35.7 Early Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (SHOP (TSX) close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P/TSX | 1 Established Up (−) → | +9.21% | -6.63% | Est. Up ≥ 204.12 (+2.0%) · Est. Down < 140.13 |
| Trend · XIT | 1 Established Up (−) → | +4.16% | -5.76% | Est. Up ≥ 213.00 (+6.4%) · Est. Down < 167.27 |
| Trading · S&P/TSX | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -13.54% | -12.61% | Early Up ≥ 231.21 · Est. Down < 229.97 |
| Trading · XIT | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -10.31% | -10.14% | Early Up ≥ 223.29 · Est. Down < 222.10 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 200.19)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 253.10–255.95 | +26.4% to +27.9% | wk high ’25-10-31 253.10 · ATH 10-14 255.95 |
| R2 | 236.99–238.22 | +18.4% to +19.0% | wk high ’25-10-10 236.99 · wk high 01-16 237.10 · wk high ’25-12-19 238.22 |
| R1 | 213.31–217.29 | +6.6% to +8.5% | wk low 01-02 213.31 · wk low ’25-12-19 214.00 · wk high ’25-08-08 215.75 · wk high 08-28 217.29 |
| S1 | 194.50–198.57 | -0.8% to -2.8% | wk low 08-21 198.57 · wk low ’25-09-26 194.50 |
| S2 | 186.90–192.48 | -3.9% to -6.6% | 50% 192.48 · wk low ’25-11-21 190.79 · wk high 02-13 189.59 · wk high 04-24 187.20 · wk low ’25-08-22 186.90 |
| S3 | 180.17–185.44 | -7.4% to -10.0% | wk high 03-06 185.44 · wk high 07-10 184.96 · wk low ’25-09-05 184.01 · wk high ’25-02-21 183.53 · 200-day SMA 180.17 |
| ATH | 255.95 | +27.9% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 194.50 (-2.8%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 186.90–192.48.
- Trend Breakdown (reference, S2 floor): Friday close < 186.90 (-6.6%): information only, no verdict impact. Next support S3 180.17–185.44.
- Trend vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 204.12 (+2.0%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 204.12 · Est. Down < 140.13 (-30.0%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P/TSX: Early Up ≥ 231.21 · Est. Down < 229.97.
Sluymer context
- CB Sep 8 p64: “SHOP remains in an uptrend with a pullback underway with 185 support we expect will hold near its rising blue 50-day ma.”
- CB Sep 22 p62: “SHOP is oversold and bottoming following its short-term pullback to support at 175 coinciding with its 50% retracement.”
- CB Sep 29 p62: “SHOP’s rebound from support near its red 200-day ma continues with pullbacks expected to be short lived.”
- CB Oct 6 p70: “SHOP’s rebound from its 2022-2026 uptrend remains intact with the next extension levels at 252 followed by 329.”
- CB Oct 13 p60: “SHOP’s uptrend remains intact approaching next resistance between 252-253 where a short-term pause is likely given daily momentum in the top right panel is overbought and poised to peak.”
- CB Oct 13: “Rate-sensitive stocks, such as ENB, TRP, PPL, FTS and H are becoming oversold with early signs of bottoming near support.”
- CB Oct 13: CADUSD “weak but oversold short-term challenging next support at 0.70”; US 10-yr “beginning to stall” at 5.35%.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P/TSX Composite (20 pts) and XIT (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Holder levels (simple S/R: 40-wk SMA, 200-day SMA, 50%/61.8% retracements, 2-yr weekly swings and prior breakouts, ATH; ≥2 tools within 3% per band): Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next band above it, else the ATH, else none (blue sky); Trade Breakdown = the 40-wk SMA (Friday close below it = flag, verdict REVIEW); Trend Breakdown (S2 floor) and Profit-Taking are reference only and do not change the verdict. Trend Score (8–16 wk) = relative strength (30 pts) + structure (30 pts) rescaled to 100: Up ≥ 60, Neutral 45–59, Down < 45, confirmed after two consecutive Friday closes; descriptive, not a forecast. Rates modifier uses the US 10-yr (Sluymer's global rate gauge). Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of ~210 current S&P/TSX Composite members (dashboard universe) with a rising weekly Coppock, in the spirit of his TSX Quadrant Balance; survivorship bias; regime input only. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).