TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
RY TSX
Royal Bank of Canada · held position
Last Price (CAD) $285.42
Unrealized G/L +137.5% (+C$38,171)
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30) · CAD
Portfolio weight 3.63% (Canada)
REVIEWTrend is Down (score 37). No trade yet: re-check the thesis.
Trend health
Trend Score (8–16 wk)
● Down
Score 37/100. Lags S&P/TSX and sector; above rising 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Lagging the S&P/TSX for 11 weeks (-2.6% relative)
Lagging TSX financials (XFN) for 7 weeks (-2.1% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $293.87 | +3.0% | top of R1 (wk low 07-31, wk high 09-25) |
Profit-Taking Zone (ref.)
reference · rebalance if overweight | $302.35–306.38 | +5.9% to +7.3% | wk high 08-21, ATH 07-16 |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | Friday close below $264.16 | -7.4% | 40-wk SMA 264.16 |
Trend Breakdown (ref.)
reference · no verdict impact | Friday close below $246.72 | -13.6% | trend stop; next support $239.02–240.34 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (40-wk SMA; Friday close < $264.16): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (reference only) (Friday close < $246.72): no verdict impact; reassess if the story has also weakened. Next support $239.02–240.34.
Sluymer's view: No direct call. Not named in the 15 reports. Sector: Canadian banks “remain in choppy ranges we expect will continue well into Q4” (CB Oct 6).
Watch this week: Fri Nov 6: a Friday close ≥ $282.90 (-0.9%) lifts RS vs the S&P/TSX off Est. Down; a Friday close below the 40-wk SMA $264.16 is the Trade Breakdown.
APPENDIX · RY (TSX) · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARDHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 264.16.
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $261.69–268.96 | -5.8% to -8.3% | wk low 10-09, 40-wk SMA, 200-day SMA |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $261.69 | -8.3% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 246.72–251.15 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $293.87 | +3.0% | top of R1 (wk low 07-31, wk high 09-25) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Early Up: Above 50-day; daily RS vs S&P/TSX Est. Up. |
Scores · Trend 36.7
| RS vs S&P/TSX (20) + sector (10) | 2.0 + 0.0 = 2.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 20 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 36.7 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Neutral → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 70.0
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 18 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive & rising | 25.0 / 25 |
| Band position | 7.0 / 20 |
| Raw | 70.0 (Early Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 70.0 Early Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (RY (TSX) close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P/TSX | 5 Established Down (+) → | -0.38% | +2.98% | Est. Up ≥ 322.73 (+13.1%) · Early Up ≥ 284.42 · Est. Down < 282.90 |
| Trend · XFN | 5 Established Down (−) → | -1.67% | -0.75% | Est. Up ≥ 302.80 (+6.1%) · Early Up ≥ 289.21 · Est. Down < 287.68 |
| Trading · S&P/TSX | 1 Established Up (+) → | +2.21% | +1.03% | Est. Up ≥ 280.27 (-1.8%) · Est. Down < 252.67 |
| Trading · XFN | 5 Established Down (−) → | -0.39% | -0.09% | Est. Up ≥ 294.07 (+3.0%) · Early Up ≥ 287.18 · Est. Down < 285.65 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 285.42)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R2 | 302.35–306.38 | +5.9% to +7.3% | wk high 08-21 302.35 · ATH 07-16 306.38 |
| R1 | 289.17–293.87 | +1.3% to +3.0% | wk low 07-31 289.17 · wk high 09-25 290.56 · wk high 09-04 293.87 |
| S1 | 261.69–268.96 | -5.8% to -8.3% | wk low 10-09 268.96 · 40-wk SMA 264.16 · 200-day SMA 263.31 · 50% 261.69 |
| S2 | 246.72–251.15 | -12.0% to -13.6% | 61.8% 251.15 · wk high 04-24 246.72 |
| S3 | 239.02–240.34 | -15.8% to -16.3% | wk high 01-09 240.34 · wk high 02-27 239.27 · wk high 02-13 239.02 |
| ATH | 306.38 | +7.3% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 261.69 (-8.3%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 246.72–251.15.
- Trend Breakdown (reference, S2 floor): Friday close < 246.72 (-13.6%): information only, no verdict impact. Next support S3 239.02–240.34.
- Trend vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 322.73 (+13.1%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 284.42 · Est. Down < 282.90 (-0.9%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 280.27 · Est. Down < 252.67.
Sluymer context
- CB Oct 6: “Banks (BMO, NA) remain in choppy ranges we expect will continue well into Q4.”
- CB Oct 6 p63: TSX Bank Index momentum “has yet to move back to oversold levels suggesting further choppy trading well into Q4.”
- CB Oct 13: “Rate-sensitive stocks, such as ENB, TRP, PPL, FTS and H are becoming oversold with early signs of bottoming near support.”
- CB Oct 13: CADUSD “weak but oversold short-term challenging next support at 0.70”; US 10-yr “beginning to stall” at 5.35%.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P/TSX Composite (20 pts) and XFN (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Holder levels (simple S/R: 40-wk SMA, 200-day SMA, 50%/61.8% retracements, 2-yr weekly swings and prior breakouts, ATH; ≥2 tools within 3% per band): Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next band above it, else the ATH, else none (blue sky); Trade Breakdown = the 40-wk SMA (Friday close below it = flag, verdict REVIEW); Trend Breakdown (S2 floor) and Profit-Taking are reference only and do not change the verdict. Trend Score (8–16 wk) = relative strength (30 pts) + structure (30 pts) rescaled to 100: Up ≥ 60, Neutral 45–59, Down < 45, confirmed after two consecutive Friday closes; descriptive, not a forecast. Rates modifier uses the US 10-yr (Sluymer's global rate gauge). Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of ~210 current S&P/TSX Composite members (dashboard universe) with a rising weekly Coppock, in the spirit of his TSX Quadrant Balance; survivorship bias; regime input only. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).