PPL.TO · Technical Trading Scorecard

APPENDIX · PPL (TSX) · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD

Held-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 65.03.

For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)

Level	Price	From close	Note
Buy zone	$68.63–69.10	-0.2% to -0.9%	wk high 05-22, wk high 08-21, wk high 09-11
Trading stop · daily close	below $68.63	-0.9%	trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 64.27–66.25
Breakout Buy Level	close above $72.72	+5.0%	top of R1 (ATH 07-24)
Trading (10–20 day) state	Early Up: Above 50-day; daily RS vs S&P/TSX Neutral.

Scores · Trend 76.7

RS vs S&P/TSX (20) + sector (10)	20.0 + 1.0 = 21.0 / 30
Structure (6 checks)	25 / 30
Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60	76.7 / 100
Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45)	Up
Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays)	confirmed Up
Trend (confirmed)	Up
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5 Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Up. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only).

Scores · Trading 74.8

RS (S&P 20 + sector 10)	8.0 + 10.0 / 30
Structure	25 / 25
Coppock (daily) — positive but decelerating	12.5 / 25
Band position	19.3 / 20
Raw	74.8 (Early Up)
Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2)	+0
Final	74.8 Early Up
✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5

Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)

Horizon · benchmark	State	RS vs SMA	RS chg	Phase-transition price (PPL (TSX) close needed)
Trend · S&P/TSX	1 Established Up (+) →	+6.09%	+2.84%	Est. Up ≥ 68.70 (-0.8%) · Early Up ≥ 67.45 · Est. Down < 67.09
Trend · XEG	5 Established Down (+) →	-4.51%	+0.36%	Early Up ≥ 74.53 · Est. Down < 74.14
Trading · S&P/TSX	3 Neutral (−) ↓	-0.15%	-0.72%	Est. Up ≥ 69.58 (+0.5%) · Est. Down < 65.36
Trading · XEG	1 Established Up (+) ↑	+1.64%	+0.43%	Est. Up ≥ 68.34 (-1.3%) · Est. Down < 65.15

Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 69.26)

Band	Range	Distance	Tools in the cluster
R1	72.72–72.72	+5.0% to +5.0%	ATH 07-24 72.72
S1	68.63–69.10	-0.2% to -0.9%	wk high 05-22 69.10 · wk high 08-21 68.92 · wk high 09-11 68.63
S2	64.27–66.25	-4.3% to -7.2%	wk low 08-28 66.25 · wk low 08-07 65.95 · 40-wk SMA 65.03 · wk low 07-03 64.62 · 200-day SMA 64.57 · wk high 04-03 64.27
S3	62.68–64.02	-7.6% to -9.5%	wk low 05-29 64.02 · wk low 06-19 63.92 · wk low 10-02 62.68
ATH	72.72	+5.0%	all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used)

Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)

Stops & phase transitions

Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 68.63 (-0.9%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 64.27–66.25.
Trend Breakdown (reference, S2 floor): Friday close < 64.27 (-7.2%): information only, no verdict impact. Next support S3 62.68–64.02.
Trend vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 68.70 (-0.8%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 67.45 · Est. Down < 67.09 (-3.1%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
Trading vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 69.58 · Est. Down < 65.36.

Sluymer context

CB Oct 6: “TRP and PPL are showing early signs of bottoming at support.”
CB Oct 6 p68: “PPL is also showing early signs of stabilizing at its rising red 200-day ma.”
CB Oct 13 p63: “PPL’s rebound from its rising 200-day ma continues.”
CB Oct 13: “Rate-sensitive stocks, such as ENB, TRP, PPL, FTS and H are becoming oversold with early signs of bottoming near support.”
CB Oct 13: CADUSD “weak but oversold short-term challenging next support at 0.70”; US 10-yr “beginning to stall” at 5.35%.

Notes & caveats

Benchmarks: S&P/TSX Composite (20 pts) and XEG (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Holder levels (simple S/R: 40-wk SMA, 200-day SMA, 50%/61.8% retracements, 2-yr weekly swings and prior breakouts, ATH; ≥2 tools within 3% per band): Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next band above it, else the ATH, else none (blue sky); Trade Breakdown = the 40-wk SMA (Friday close below it = flag, verdict REVIEW); Trend Breakdown (S2 floor) and Profit-Taking are reference only and do not change the verdict. Trend Score (8–16 wk) = relative strength (30 pts) + structure (30 pts) rescaled to 100: Up ≥ 60, Neutral 45–59, Down < 45, confirmed after two consecutive Friday closes; descriptive, not a forecast. Rates modifier uses the US 10-yr (Sluymer's global rate gauge). Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of ~210 current S&P/TSX Composite members (dashboard universe) with a rising weekly Coppock, in the spirit of his TSX Quadrant Balance; survivorship bias; regime input only. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).

Breakout Level confirms hold	Friday close above $72.72	+5.0%	top of R1 (ATH 07-24)
Profit-Taking Zone (ref.) reference · rebalance if overweight	—	blue sky	none: blue sky above the Breakout
Trade Breakdown review thesis, no trade	Friday close below $65.03	-6.1%	40-wk SMA 65.03
Trend Breakdown (ref.) reference · no verdict impact	Friday close below $64.27	-7.2%	trend stop; next support $62.68–64.02

PPL TSX

Trend health

Key levels for holders