TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
NXE TSX
NexGen Energy Ltd · held position
Last Price (CAD) $11.17
Unrealized G/L -17.9% (−C$5,531)
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30) · CAD
Portfolio weight 1.45% (Canada)
REVIEWHigh risk · consider trim 50%High risk: Trend Down (score 8); Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA ($14.68). Consider trimming 50% if the story has weakened.
Trend health
Trend Score (8–16 wk)
● Down
Score 8/100. Lags S&P/TSX and sector; below falling 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Lagging the S&P/TSX for 8 weeks (-20.6% relative)
Lagging TSX energy (XEG) for 12 weeks (-34.4% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $11.38 | +1.9% | top of R1 (wk low ’25-10-24, wk low ’25-12-19) |
Profit-Taking Zone (ref.)
reference · rebalance if overweight | $12.41–12.78 | +11.1% to +14.4% | wk low 01-02, wk high 2024-11-22, 61.8% retr. |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | TRIGGERED · reclaim $14.68 | +31.4% | 40-wk SMA 14.68 |
Trend Breakdown (ref.)
reference · no verdict impact | Friday close below $10.20 | -8.7% | trend stop; next support $9.52–9.81 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (40-wk SMA; triggered at $14.68): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (reference only) (Friday close < $10.20): no verdict impact; reassess if the story has also weakened. Next support $9.52–9.81.
Sluymer's view: No direct call. Not named in the 15 reports. Peer Cameco: “CCO has bottomed at its 50% retracement level with pullbacks expected to be shallow” (CB Aug 18).
Watch this week: Fri Nov 6: a Friday close ≥ $13.08 (+17.1%) lifts RS vs the S&P/TSX off Est. Down; a Friday close back above the 40-wk SMA $14.68 clears the Trade Breakdown.
APPENDIX · NXE (TSX) · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARDHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 14.68 (already below on the Friday close: Trade Breakdown triggered).
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $10.98–11.07 | -0.9% to -1.7% | wk high ’25-01-10, wk high ’25-01-24, wk low 10-23 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $10.98 | -1.7% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 10.20–10.36 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $11.38 | +1.9% | top of R1 (wk low ’25-10-24, wk low ’25-12-19) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Established Down: Below 50-day; daily RS vs S&P/TSX Est. Down. |
Scores · Trend 8.3
| RS vs S&P/TSX (20) + sector (10) | 0.0 + 0.0 = 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 5 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 8.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 12.9
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 5 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — negative & falling | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 5.5 / 20 |
| Raw | 12.9 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 12.9 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (NXE (TSX) close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P/TSX | 5 Established Down (−) → | -11.71% | -0.84% | Est. Up ≥ 14.76 (+32.1%) · Early Up ≥ 13.15 · Est. Down < 13.08 |
| Trend · XEG | 5 Established Down (−) → | -20.84% | -3.24% | Early Up ≥ 14.60 · Est. Down < 14.52 |
| Trading · S&P/TSX | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -3.80% | -5.51% | Est. Up ≥ 13.73 (+22.9%) · Early Up ≥ 11.66 · Est. Down < 11.60 |
| Trading · XEG | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -2.09% | -4.42% | Est. Up ≥ 13.73 (+22.9%) · Early Up ≥ 11.45 · Est. Down < 11.39 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 11.17)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 12.92–13.10 | +15.7% to +17.3% | wk low 09-18 12.92 · wk high ’25-10-03 13.10 |
| R2 | 12.41–12.78 | +11.1% to +14.4% | wk low 01-02 12.41 · wk high 2024-11-22 12.51 · 61.8% 12.58 · wk low 06-12 12.78 |
| R1 | 11.18–11.38 | +0.1% to +1.9% | wk low ’25-10-24 11.18 · wk low ’25-12-19 11.22 · wk high ’25-08-29 11.38 |
| S1 | 10.98–11.07 | -0.9% to -1.7% | wk high ’25-01-10 11.07 · wk high ’25-01-24 11.04 · wk low 10-23 10.98 |
| S2 | 10.20–10.36 | -7.3% to -8.7% | wk low ’25-11-21 10.36 · wk high ’25-07-25 10.20 |
| S3 | 9.52–9.81 | -12.2% to -14.8% | wk high ’25-06-20 9.81 · wk low 2024-11-08 9.67 · wk high ’25-02-14 9.66 · wk low ’25-01-17 9.52 |
| ATH | 18.91 | +69.3% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 10.98 (-1.7%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 10.20–10.36.
- Trend Breakdown (reference, S2 floor): Friday close < 10.20 (-8.7%): information only, no verdict impact. Next support S3 9.52–9.81.
- Trend vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 14.76 (+32.1%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 13.15 · Est. Down < 13.08 (+17.1%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 13.73 · Early Up ≥ 11.66 · Est. Down < 11.60.
Sluymer context
- CB Aug 18 p58: “CCO has bottomed at its 50% retracement level with pullbacks expected to be shallow.”
- CB Oct 13: “Rate-sensitive stocks, such as ENB, TRP, PPL, FTS and H are becoming oversold with early signs of bottoming near support.”
- CB Oct 13: CADUSD “weak but oversold short-term challenging next support at 0.70”; US 10-yr “beginning to stall” at 5.35%.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P/TSX Composite (20 pts) and XEG (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Holder levels (simple S/R: 40-wk SMA, 200-day SMA, 50%/61.8% retracements, 2-yr weekly swings and prior breakouts, ATH; ≥2 tools within 3% per band): Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next band above it, else the ATH, else none (blue sky); Trade Breakdown = the 40-wk SMA (Friday close below it = flag, verdict REVIEW); Trend Breakdown (S2 floor) and Profit-Taking are reference only and do not change the verdict. Trend Score (8–16 wk) = relative strength (30 pts) + structure (30 pts) rescaled to 100: Up ≥ 60, Neutral 45–59, Down < 45, confirmed after two consecutive Friday closes; descriptive, not a forecast. Rates modifier uses the US 10-yr (Sluymer's global rate gauge). Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of ~210 current S&P/TSX Composite members (dashboard universe) with a rising weekly Coppock, in the spirit of his TSX Quadrant Balance; survivorship bias; regime input only. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).