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TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD

NTR TSX

Nutrien Ltd · held position
Last Price (CAD) $97.07
Unrealized G/L +18.6% (+C$8,411)
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30) · CAD
Portfolio weight 2.96% (Canada)
REVIEWFriday close below the 40-wk SMA ($98.57). No trade yet: re-check the thesis.

Trend health

Trend Score (8–16 wk)
● Neutral
Score 48/100. Lags S&P/TSX, leads sector; below rising 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Lagging the S&P/TSX for 2 weeks (-2.3% relative)
Leading TSX materials (XMA) for 3 weeks (+17.5% relative)

Key levels for holders

Breakout Level
confirms hold		Friday close above $99.37+2.4%top of R1 (40-wk SMA, wk high 01-30)
Profit-Taking Zone (ref.)
reference · rebalance if overweight		$103.59–105.90+6.7% to +9.1%wk high 10-09, 61.8% retr., wk high 05-08
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade		TRIGGERED · reclaim $98.57+1.5%40-wk SMA 98.57
Trend Breakdown (ref.)
reference · no verdict impact		Friday close below $92.64-4.6%trend stop; next support $88.00–89.50
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (40-wk SMA; triggered at $98.57): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (reference only) (Friday close < $92.64): no verdict impact; reassess if the story has also weakened. Next support $88.00–89.50.
Sluymer's view: Agrees. “NTR’s pullback continues challenging its next support range between 96-99”; “deeply oversold short-term… which we expect will lead to a rebound” (CB Oct 13).
Watch this week: Fri Nov 6: a Friday close ≥ $91.59 (-5.6%) keeps RS vs the S&P/TSX at Early Down or better; a Friday close back above the 40-wk SMA $98.57 clears the Trade Breakdown.
Rule-based demo inspired by Robert Sluymer's published framework; not RBC research or advice. Data: Yahoo Finance; levels computed from price data. Prepared Nov 3, 2026, 2:54 PM PT. Appendix + "For adding/new entries" on p.2.
APPENDIX · NTR (TSX) · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Held-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 98.57 (already below on the Friday close: Trade Breakdown triggered).

For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)

LevelPriceFrom closeNote
Buy zone$93.26–95.79-1.3% to -3.9%wk low 10-09, wk low 04-17, wk low 10-23
Trading stop · daily closebelow $93.26-3.9%trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 92.64–92.81
Breakout Buy Levelclose above $99.37+2.4%top of R1 (40-wk SMA, wk high 01-30)
Trading (10–20 day) stateNeutral: Below 50-day; daily RS vs S&P/TSX Early Up.

Scores · Trend 47.7

RS vs S&P/TSX (20) + sector (10)4.6 + 10.0 = 14.6 / 30
Structure (6 checks)14 / 30
Score = (RS + structure) × 100/6047.7 / 100
Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45)Neutral
Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays)confirmed Neutral
Trend (confirmed)Neutral
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Neutral → 10-30 Neutral. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only).

Scores · Trading 46.5

RS (S&P 20 + sector 10)15.4 + 10.0 / 30
Structure6 / 25
Coppock (daily) — BOUNCE tag — oversold & turning up inside a down structure (no boost)2.5 / 25
Band position12.6 / 20
Raw46.5 (Neutral)
Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2)+0
Final46.5 Neutral
✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5

Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)

Horizon · benchmarkStateRS vs SMARS chgPhase-transition price (NTR (TSX) close needed)
Trend · S&P/TSX4 Early Down (−) →-2.13%-2.32%Est. Up ≥ 99.59 (+2.6%) · Est. Down < 91.59
Trend · XMA1 Established Up (+) →+9.94%+9.11%Est. Up ≥ 94.17 (-3.0%) · Early Up ≥ 87.69 · Est. Down < 87.22
Trading · S&P/TSX2 Early Up (+) ↑+0.82%+3.42%Est. Up ≥ 98.69 (+1.7%) · Early Up ≥ 96.33 · Est. Down < 95.81
Trading · XMA1 Established Up (+) →+5.78%+5.66%Est. Up ≥ 92.04 (-5.2%) · Est. Down < 67.95

Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 97.07)

BandRangeDistanceTools in the cluster
R3112.54–113.77+15.9% to +17.2%50% 112.54 · wk high 09-11 113.77
R2103.59–105.90+6.7% to +9.1%wk high 10-09 103.59 · 61.8% 104.19 · wk high 05-08 105.90
R198.57–99.37+1.5% to +2.4%40-wk SMA 98.57 · wk high 01-30 98.67 · wk low 03-27 99.05 · wk high 07-31 99.37
S193.26–95.79-1.3% to -3.9%wk low 10-09 95.79 · wk low 04-17 94.78 · wk low 10-23 94.12 · wk low 05-08 93.26
S292.64–92.81-4.4% to -4.6%wk low 07-24 92.81 · wk low 02-06 92.64
S388.00–89.50-7.8% to -9.3%wk low 08-07 89.50 · wk high ’25-06-20 88.03 · wk high ’25-12-19 88.00
ATH147.93+52.4%all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used)

Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)

Stops & phase transitions

  • Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 93.26 (-3.9%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 92.64–92.81.
  • Trend Breakdown (reference, S2 floor): Friday close < 92.64 (-4.6%): information only, no verdict impact. Next support S3 88.00–89.50.
  • Trend vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 99.59 (+2.6%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 99.59 · Est. Down < 91.59 (-5.6%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
  • Trading vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 98.69 · Early Up ≥ 96.33 · Est. Down < 95.81.

Sluymer context

  • CB Sep 29 p54: “NTR’s pullback from resistance near 115 continues… as it approaches support between 96-99.”
  • CB Oct 6 p69: “NTR stalled at its 62% retracement level of the 2022-2024 decline… with the recent pullback oversold and back to support at its 50-62% retracement level of the Q3 rebound where we expect it to bottom.”
  • CB Oct 13 p67: “NTR’s pullback continues challenging its next support range between 96-99. While some further weakness is possible, NTR is deeply oversold short-term based on its daily momentum (top right panel) which we expect will lead to a rebound.”
  • CB Oct 13: “Rate-sensitive stocks, such as ENB, TRP, PPL, FTS and H are becoming oversold with early signs of bottoming near support.”
  • CB Oct 13: CADUSD “weak but oversold short-term challenging next support at 0.70”; US 10-yr “beginning to stall” at 5.35%.

Notes & caveats

Benchmarks: S&P/TSX Composite (20 pts) and XMA (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Holder levels (simple S/R: 40-wk SMA, 200-day SMA, 50%/61.8% retracements, 2-yr weekly swings and prior breakouts, ATH; ≥2 tools within 3% per band): Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next band above it, else the ATH, else none (blue sky); Trade Breakdown = the 40-wk SMA (Friday close below it = flag, verdict REVIEW); Trend Breakdown (S2 floor) and Profit-Taking are reference only and do not change the verdict. Trend Score (8–16 wk) = relative strength (30 pts) + structure (30 pts) rescaled to 100: Up ≥ 60, Neutral 45–59, Down < 45, confirmed after two consecutive Friday closes; descriptive, not a forecast. Rates modifier uses the US 10-yr (Sluymer's global rate gauge). Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of ~210 current S&P/TSX Composite members (dashboard universe) with a rising weekly Coppock, in the spirit of his TSX Quadrant Balance; survivorship bias; regime input only. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).