TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
MDA TSX
MDA Space Ltd · held position
Last Price (CAD) $38.30
Unrealized G/L +13.4% (+C$3,837)
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30) · CAD
Portfolio weight 1.78% (Canada)
REVIEWTrend is Down (score 23) and Friday close below the 40-wk SMA ($44.42). No trade yet: re-check the thesis.
Trend health
Trend Score (8–16 wk)
● Down
Score 23/100. Lags S&P/TSX and sector; below rising 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Lagging the S&P/TSX for 17 weeks (-36.6% relative)
Lagging TSX industrials (ZIN) for 17 weeks (-34.9% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $38.82 | +1.4% | top of R1 (wk low ’25-08-01, wk high ’25-10-10) |
Profit-Taking Zone (ref.)
reference · rebalance if overweight | $39.61–40.58 | +3.4% to +6.0% | wk low 05-01, wk low 07-31, wk high 02-20 |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | TRIGGERED · reclaim $44.42 | +16.0% | 40-wk SMA 44.42 |
Trend Breakdown (ref.)
reference · no verdict impact | Friday close below $29.98 | -21.7% | trend stop; next support $28.91–29.23 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (40-wk SMA; triggered at $44.42): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (reference only) (Friday close < $29.98): no verdict impact; reassess if the story has also weakened. Next support $28.91–29.23.
Sluymer's view: No direct call. Not named in the 15 reports, and no TSX industrials/space call.
Watch this week: Fri Nov 6: a Friday close ≥ $41.54 (+8.5%) lifts RS vs the S&P/TSX off Est. Down; a Friday close back above the 40-wk SMA $44.42 clears the Trade Breakdown.
APPENDIX · MDA (TSX) · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARDHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 44.42 (already below on the Friday close: Trade Breakdown triggered).
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $32.42–33.15 | -13.4% to -15.4% | wk low 02-13, wk low 04-03 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $32.42 | -15.4% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 29.98–30.57 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $38.82 | +1.4% | top of R1 (wk low ’25-08-01, wk high ’25-10-10) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Established Down: Below 50-day; daily RS vs S&P/TSX Est. Down. |
Scores · Trend 23.3
| RS vs S&P/TSX (20) + sector (10) | 0.0 + 0.0 = 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 14 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 23.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 14.9
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 8 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — negative & falling | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 4.4 / 20 |
| Raw | 14.9 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 14.9 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (MDA (TSX) close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P/TSX | 5 Established Down (−) → | -8.90% | -3.20% | Early Up ≥ 41.76 · Est. Down < 41.54 |
| Trend · ZIN | 5 Established Down (−) → | -8.57% | -3.34% | Est. Up ≥ 49.77 (+29.9%) · Early Up ≥ 41.74 · Est. Down < 41.52 |
| Trading · S&P/TSX | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -1.50% | -4.16% | Est. Up ≥ 44.55 (+16.3%) · Early Up ≥ 38.97 · Est. Down < 38.76 |
| Trading · ZIN | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -5.39% | -6.82% | Est. Up ≥ 47.11 (+23.0%) · Early Up ≥ 40.63 · Est. Down < 40.41 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 38.30)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 40.99–41.49 | +7.0% to +8.3% | wk low 07-17 40.99 · wk high 01-30 41.43 · wk low ’25-08-15 41.49 |
| R2 | 39.61–40.58 | +3.4% to +6.0% | wk low 05-01 39.61 · wk low 07-31 39.85 · wk high 02-20 40.58 |
| R1 | 38.43–38.82 | +0.3% to +1.4% | wk low ’25-08-01 38.43 · wk high ’25-10-10 38.59 · 61.8% 38.82 |
| S1 | 32.42–33.15 | -13.4% to -15.4% | wk low 02-13 33.15 · wk low 04-03 32.42 |
| S2 | 29.98–30.57 | -20.2% to -21.7% | wk low ’25-09-12 30.57 · wk high ’25-01-03 30.00 · wk high 2024-12-13 29.98 |
| S3 | 28.91–29.23 | -23.7% to -24.5% | wk high ’25-03-28 29.23 · wk high ’25-01-24 28.91 |
| ATH | 67.90 | +77.3% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 32.42 (-15.4%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 29.98–30.57.
- Trend Breakdown (reference, S2 floor): Friday close < 29.98 (-21.7%): information only, no verdict impact. Next support S3 28.91–29.23.
- Trend vs S&P/TSX: above its 16-wk avg ≥ 41.76 · Est. Down < 41.54 (+8.5%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 44.55 · Early Up ≥ 38.97 · Est. Down < 38.76.
Sluymer context
- CB Oct 13: “Rate-sensitive stocks, such as ENB, TRP, PPL, FTS and H are becoming oversold with early signs of bottoming near support.”
- CB Oct 13: CADUSD “weak but oversold short-term challenging next support at 0.70”; US 10-yr “beginning to stall” at 5.35%.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P/TSX Composite (20 pts) and ZIN (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Holder levels (simple S/R: 40-wk SMA, 200-day SMA, 50%/61.8% retracements, 2-yr weekly swings and prior breakouts, ATH; ≥2 tools within 3% per band): Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next band above it, else the ATH, else none (blue sky); Trade Breakdown = the 40-wk SMA (Friday close below it = flag, verdict REVIEW); Trend Breakdown (S2 floor) and Profit-Taking are reference only and do not change the verdict. Trend Score (8–16 wk) = relative strength (30 pts) + structure (30 pts) rescaled to 100: Up ≥ 60, Neutral 45–59, Down < 45, confirmed after two consecutive Friday closes; descriptive, not a forecast. Sector proxy ZIN (BMO equal-weight industrials); no iShares TSX industrials ETF. Rates modifier uses the US 10-yr (Sluymer's global rate gauge). Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of ~210 current S&P/TSX Composite members (dashboard universe) with a rising weekly Coppock, in the spirit of his TSX Quadrant Balance; survivorship bias; regime input only. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).