L.TO · Technical Trading Scorecard

APPENDIX · L (TSX) · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD

Held-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 63.66.

For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)

Level	Price	From close	Note
Buy zone	$66.81–67.56	-2.5% to -3.6%	wk high 06-12, wk high 07-31, wk high 06-26
Trading stop · daily close	below $66.81	-3.6%	trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 63.38–65.27
Breakout Buy Level	close above $71.06	+2.5%	top of R1 (wk high 02-27, ATH 10-22)
Trading (10–20 day) state	Early Up: Above 50-day; daily RS vs S&P/TSX Est. Up.

Scores · Trend 98.3

RS vs S&P/TSX (20) + sector (10)	20.0 + 9.0 = 29.0 / 30
Structure (6 checks)	30 / 30
Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60	98.3 / 100
Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45)	Up
Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays)	confirmed Up
Trend (confirmed)	Up
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✔ No lower high vs cycle high 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5 Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Up. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only).

Scores · Trading 61.4

RS (S&P 20 + sector 10)	20.0 + 4.0 / 30
Structure	25 / 25
Coppock (daily) — positive but rolling over from >80th pctile	6.2 / 25
Band position	6.1 / 20
Raw	61.4 (Early Up)
Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2)	+0
Final	61.4 Early Up
✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5

Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)

Horizon · benchmark	State	RS vs SMA	RS chg	Phase-transition price (L (TSX) close needed)
Trend · S&P/TSX	1 Established Up (+) →	+8.88%	+0.13%	Est. Up ≥ 63.43 (-8.5%) · Est. Down < 61.84
Trend · XST	1 Established Up (−) →	+5.03%	-0.07%	Est. Up ≥ 66.01 (-4.8%) · Est. Down < 59.74
Trading · S&P/TSX	1 Established Up (+) →	+2.01%	+3.24%	Est. Up ≥ 68.31 (-1.5%) · Est. Down < 52.74
Trading · XST	3 Neutral (−) ↓	-0.06%	-0.74%	Est. Up ≥ 69.63 (+0.4%) · Est. Down < 64.75

Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 69.32)

Band	Range	Distance	Tools in the cluster
R1	69.59–71.06	+0.4% to +2.5%	wk high 02-27 69.59 · ATH 10-22 71.06
S1	66.81–67.56	-2.5% to -3.6%	wk high 06-12 67.56 · wk high 07-31 66.97 · wk high 06-26 66.81
S2	63.38–65.27	-5.8% to -8.6%	wk high 04-10 65.27 · 50% 64.95 · wk high 03-20 64.74 · 40-wk SMA 63.66 · 200-day SMA 63.63 · wk high 09-04 63.53 · 61.8% 63.51 · wk high ’25-11-28 63.43 · wk high 10-02 63.38
S3	62.62–63.30	-8.7% to -9.7%	wk high 05-08 63.30 · wk low 07-24 63.18 · wk high 01-02 62.77 · wk high ’25-12-19 62.62
ATH	71.06	+2.5%	all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used)

Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)

Stops & phase transitions

Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 66.81 (-3.6%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 63.38–65.27.
Trend Breakdown (reference, S2 floor): Friday close < 63.38 (-8.6%): information only, no verdict impact. Next support S3 62.62–63.30.
Trend vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 63.43 (-8.5%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 63.43 · Est. Down < 61.84 (-10.8%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
Trading vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 68.31 · Est. Down < 52.74.

Sluymer context

CB Sep 8: “L is oversold short-term at a key support/stop level with a rally taking hold.”
CB Sep 8 p63: “L is again rallying from short-term oversold levels near key support and stop loss level at 60.”
CB Oct 13: “Rate-sensitive stocks, such as ENB, TRP, PPL, FTS and H are becoming oversold with early signs of bottoming near support.”
CB Oct 13: CADUSD “weak but oversold short-term challenging next support at 0.70”; US 10-yr “beginning to stall” at 5.35%.

Notes & caveats

Benchmarks: S&P/TSX Composite (20 pts) and XST (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Holder levels (simple S/R: 40-wk SMA, 200-day SMA, 50%/61.8% retracements, 2-yr weekly swings and prior breakouts, ATH; ≥2 tools within 3% per band): Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next band above it, else the ATH, else none (blue sky); Trade Breakdown = the 40-wk SMA (Friday close below it = flag, verdict REVIEW); Trend Breakdown (S2 floor) and Profit-Taking are reference only and do not change the verdict. Trend Score (8–16 wk) = relative strength (30 pts) + structure (30 pts) rescaled to 100: Up ≥ 60, Neutral 45–59, Down < 45, confirmed after two consecutive Friday closes; descriptive, not a forecast. Sector proxy XST (iShares TSX capped consumer staples). Rates modifier uses the US 10-yr (Sluymer's global rate gauge). Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of ~210 current S&P/TSX Composite members (dashboard universe) with a rising weekly Coppock, in the spirit of his TSX Quadrant Balance; survivorship bias; regime input only. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).

Breakout Level confirms hold	Friday close above $71.06	+2.5%	top of R1 (wk high 02-27, ATH 10-22)
Profit-Taking Zone (ref.) reference · rebalance if overweight	—	blue sky	none: blue sky above the Breakout
Trade Breakdown review thesis, no trade	Friday close below $63.66	-8.2%	40-wk SMA 63.66
Trend Breakdown (ref.) reference · no verdict impact	Friday close below $63.38	-8.6%	trend stop; next support $62.62–63.30

L TSX

Trend health

Key levels for holders