TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
CP TSX
Canadian Pacific Kansas City · held position
Last Price (CAD) $127.72
Unrealized G/L +81.7% (+C$17,748)
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30) · CAD
Portfolio weight 2.14% (Canada)
REVIEWTrend is Down (score 70). No trade yet: re-check the thesis.
Trend health
Trend Score (8–16 wk)
● Down
Score 70/100. In line with S&P/TSX, leads sector; above rising 40-wk. Raw Up this Friday, needs a 2nd to confirm.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Leading the S&P/TSX for 1 week (+0.3% relative)
Leading TSX industrials (ZIN) for 2 weeks (+2.9% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $133.38 | +4.4% | top of R1 (wk high 07-24, ATH 08-21) |
Profit-Taking Zone (ref.)
reference · rebalance if overweight | — | blue sky | none: blue sky above the Breakout |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | Friday close below $120.44 | -5.7% | 40-wk SMA 120.44 |
Trend Breakdown (ref.)
reference · no verdict impact | Friday close below $118.80 | -7.0% | trend stop; next support $112.32–115.19 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (40-wk SMA; Friday close < $120.44): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (reference only) (Friday close < $118.80): no verdict impact; reassess if the story has also weakened. Next support $112.32–115.19.
Sluymer's view: No direct call. Not named in the 15 reports. Peer rails: “Rails, like CSX, are becoming oversold short-term with early signs of bottoming near support” (CB Oct 6).
Watch this week: Fri Nov 6: a Friday close ≥ $124.43 (-2.6%) keeps RS vs the S&P/TSX at Neutral or better; a Friday close below the 40-wk SMA $120.44 is the Trade Breakdown.
APPENDIX · CP (TSX) · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARDHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 120.44.
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $125.89–127.50 | -0.2% to -1.4% | wk high 06-19, wk high 09-25 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $125.89 | -1.4% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 118.80–122.25 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $133.38 | +4.4% | top of R1 (wk high 07-24, ATH 08-21) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Established Up: Above 50-day; daily RS vs S&P/TSX Est. Up. |
Scores · Trend 70.0
| RS vs S&P/TSX (20) + sector (10) | 12.0 + 10.0 = 22.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 20 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 70.0 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Up |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down; Up pending 1/2 |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Neutral → 10-30 Up. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 90.5
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 4.3 / 30 |
| Structure | 22 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive & rising | 25.0 / 25 |
| Band position | 19.2 / 20 |
| Raw | 90.5 (Established Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 90.5 Established Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (CP (TSX) close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P/TSX | 3 Neutral (+) ↑ | +0.06% | +3.08% | Est. Up ≥ 136.10 (+6.6%) · Early Up ≥ 125.10 · Est. Down < 124.43 |
| Trend · ZIN | 1 Established Up (+) ↑ | +0.39% | +2.94% | Est. Up ≥ 125.56 (-1.7%) · Early Up ≥ 125.11 · Est. Down < 124.44 |
| Trading · S&P/TSX | 1 Established Up (+) → | +3.44% | +5.33% | Est. Up ≥ 123.87 (-3.0%) · Est. Down < 108.35 |
| Trading · ZIN | 4 Early Down (+) ↓ | -0.63% | +2.41% | Est. Up ≥ 129.11 (+1.1%) · Est. Down < 115.59 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 127.72)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R1 | 131.89–133.38 | +3.3% to +4.4% | wk high 07-24 131.89 · ATH 08-21 133.38 |
| S1 | 125.89–127.50 | -0.2% to -1.4% | wk high 06-19 127.50 · wk high 09-25 125.89 |
| S2 | 118.80–122.25 | -4.3% to -7.0% | wk high 03-06 122.25 · wk low 07-31 122.05 · 40-wk SMA 120.44 · wk low 06-19 120.10 · wk high 05-01 119.82 · 200-day SMA 119.65 · wk low 10-09 118.98 · wk high ’25-01-31 118.80 |
| S3 | 112.32–115.19 | -9.8% to -12.1% | 50% 115.19 · wk high ’25-03-07 114.62 · wk high ’25-07-11 114.57 · wk high 04-10 114.29 · wk high ’25-06-06 113.58 · wk high ’25-06-20 113.40 · wk high 2024-10-18 113.29 · wk high ’25-02-21 112.73 · wk low 05-08 112.51 · wk high ’25-01-10 112.32 |
| ATH | 133.38 | +4.4% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 125.89 (-1.4%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 118.80–122.25.
- Trend Breakdown (reference, S2 floor): Friday close < 118.80 (-7.0%): information only, no verdict impact. Next support S3 112.32–115.19.
- Trend vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 136.10 (+6.6%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 125.10 · Est. Down < 124.43 (-2.6%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 123.87 · Est. Down < 108.35.
Sluymer context
- CB Oct 6: “Rails, like CSX, are becoming oversold short-term with early signs of bottoming near support.”
- CB Oct 13: “Rate-sensitive stocks, such as ENB, TRP, PPL, FTS and H are becoming oversold with early signs of bottoming near support.”
- CB Oct 13: CADUSD “weak but oversold short-term challenging next support at 0.70”; US 10-yr “beginning to stall” at 5.35%.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P/TSX Composite (20 pts) and ZIN (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Holder levels (simple S/R: 40-wk SMA, 200-day SMA, 50%/61.8% retracements, 2-yr weekly swings and prior breakouts, ATH; ≥2 tools within 3% per band): Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next band above it, else the ATH, else none (blue sky); Trade Breakdown = the 40-wk SMA (Friday close below it = flag, verdict REVIEW); Trend Breakdown (S2 floor) and Profit-Taking are reference only and do not change the verdict. Trend Score (8–16 wk) = relative strength (30 pts) + structure (30 pts) rescaled to 100: Up ≥ 60, Neutral 45–59, Down < 45, confirmed after two consecutive Friday closes; descriptive, not a forecast. Sector proxy ZIN (BMO equal-weight industrials); no iShares TSX industrials ETF. Rates modifier uses the US 10-yr (Sluymer's global rate gauge). Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of ~210 current S&P/TSX Composite members (dashboard universe) with a rising weekly Coppock, in the spirit of his TSX Quadrant Balance; survivorship bias; regime input only. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).