CNQ.TO · Technical Trading Scorecard

APPENDIX · CNQ (TSX) · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD

Held-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 64.53.

For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)

Level	Price	From close	Note
Buy zone	$70.44–72.35	-3.5% to -6.0%	wk high 09-11, wk high 04-03, wk high 03-20
Trading stop · daily close	below $70.44	-6.0%	trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 66.88–68.45
Breakout Buy Level	close above $78.60	+4.8%	top of R1 (ATH 10-30)
Trading (10–20 day) state	Early Up: Above 50-day; daily RS vs S&P/TSX Neutral.

Scores · Trend 100.0

RS vs S&P/TSX (20) + sector (10)	20.0 + 10.0 = 30.0 / 30
Structure (6 checks)	30 / 30
Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60	100.0 / 100
Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45)	Up
Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays)	confirmed Up
Trend (confirmed)	Up
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✔ No lower high vs cycle high 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5 Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Up. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only).

Scores · Trading 68.8

RS (S&P 20 + sector 10)	8.0 + 10.0 / 30
Structure	25 / 25
Coppock (daily) — positive but decelerating	12.5 / 25
Band position	13.3 / 20
Raw	68.8 (Early Up)
Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2)	+0
Final	68.8 Early Up
✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5

Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)

Horizon · benchmark	State	RS vs SMA	RS chg	Phase-transition price (CNQ (TSX) close needed)
Trend · S&P/TSX	1 Established Up (+) →	+14.01%	+4.66%	Est. Up ≥ 69.42 (-7.4%) · Est. Down < 52.48
Trend · XEG	1 Established Up (+) →	+2.91%	+2.13%	Est. Up ≥ 76.55 (+2.1%) · Est. Down < 69.57
Trading · S&P/TSX	3 Neutral (−) ↓	-0.19%	-0.74%	Est. Up ≥ 75.42 (+0.6%) · Est. Down < 68.00
Trading · XEG	1 Established Up (+) →	+1.60%	+0.41%	Est. Up ≥ 74.08 (-1.2%) · Est. Down < 67.73

Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 74.97)

Band	Range	Distance	Tools in the cluster
R1	78.60–78.60	+4.8% to +4.8%	ATH 10-30 78.60
S1	70.44–72.35	-3.5% to -6.0%	wk high 09-11 72.35 · wk high 04-03 70.99 · wk high 03-20 70.44
S2	66.88–68.45	-8.7% to -10.8%	wk high 05-22 68.45 · wk low 09-11 68.42 · wk high 07-31 67.10 · wk high 06-05 67.08 · 50% 66.88
S3	64.11–66.05	-11.9% to -14.5%	wk low 10-02 66.05 · 40-wk SMA 64.53 · 61.8% 64.11
ATH	78.60	+4.8%	all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used)

Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)

Stops & phase transitions

Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 70.44 (-6.0%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 66.88–68.45.
Trend Breakdown (reference, S2 floor): Friday close < 66.88 (-10.8%): information only, no verdict impact. Next support S3 64.11–66.05.
Trend vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 69.42 (-7.4%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 69.42 · Est. Down < 52.48 (-30.0%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
Trading vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 75.42 · Est. Down < 68.00.

Sluymer context

CB Sep 15 p52: “CNQ is starting to consolidate at its 162% extension level near 70. First support is 68 then 65 at its rising 50-day ma.”
CB Sep 22 p52: “CNQ is also pausing at resistance with a pullback underway with support starting at 65 then 62-64.”
CB Sep 29 p53: “CNQ is also pausing near its Q2 highs with the recent pullback becoming oversold and bouncing from first support near its 50-day ma near 68.”
CB Oct 13: “Rate-sensitive stocks, such as ENB, TRP, PPL, FTS and H are becoming oversold with early signs of bottoming near support.”
CB Oct 13: CADUSD “weak but oversold short-term challenging next support at 0.70”; US 10-yr “beginning to stall” at 5.35%.

Notes & caveats

Benchmarks: S&P/TSX Composite (20 pts) and XEG (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Holder levels (simple S/R: 40-wk SMA, 200-day SMA, 50%/61.8% retracements, 2-yr weekly swings and prior breakouts, ATH; ≥2 tools within 3% per band): Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next band above it, else the ATH, else none (blue sky); Trade Breakdown = the 40-wk SMA (Friday close below it = flag, verdict REVIEW); Trend Breakdown (S2 floor) and Profit-Taking are reference only and do not change the verdict. Trend Score (8–16 wk) = relative strength (30 pts) + structure (30 pts) rescaled to 100: Up ≥ 60, Neutral 45–59, Down < 45, confirmed after two consecutive Friday closes; descriptive, not a forecast. Rates modifier uses the US 10-yr (Sluymer's global rate gauge). Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of ~210 current S&P/TSX Composite members (dashboard universe) with a rising weekly Coppock, in the spirit of his TSX Quadrant Balance; survivorship bias; regime input only. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).

Breakout Level confirms hold	Friday close above $78.60	+4.8%	top of R1 (ATH 10-30)
Profit-Taking Zone (ref.) reference · rebalance if overweight	—	blue sky	none: blue sky above the Breakout
Trade Breakdown review thesis, no trade	Friday close below $64.53	-13.9%	40-wk SMA 64.53
Trend Breakdown (ref.) reference · no verdict impact	Friday close below $66.88	-10.8%	trend stop; next support $64.11–66.05

CNQ TSX

Trend health

Key levels for holders