TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
BMO TSX
Bank of Montreal · held position
Last Price (CAD) $240.56
Unrealized G/L +56.4% (+C$31,131)
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30) · CAD
Portfolio weight 4.75% (Canada)
REVIEWTrend is Down (score 37). No trade yet: re-check the thesis.
Trend health
Trend Score (8–16 wk)
● Down
Score 37/100. Lags S&P/TSX and sector; above rising 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Lagging the S&P/TSX for 11 weeks (-4.3% relative)
Lagging TSX financials (XFN) for 5 weeks (-3.1% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $249.59 | +3.8% | top of R1 (wk high 09-04, wk low 07-31) |
Profit-Taking Zone (ref.)
reference · rebalance if overweight | $258.21–259.20 | +7.3% to +7.7% | wk high 07-17, ATH 08-17 |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | Friday close below $223.75 | -7.0% | 40-wk SMA 223.75 |
Trend Breakdown (ref.)
reference · no verdict impact | Friday close below $219.75 | -8.7% | trend stop; next support $210.44–212.74 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (40-wk SMA; Friday close < $223.75): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (reference only) (Friday close < $219.75): no verdict impact; reassess if the story has also weakened. Next support $210.44–212.74.
Sluymer's view: Agrees. “BMO’s pause/pullback continues with major support closer to 220”; banks “remain in choppy ranges we expect will continue well into Q4” (CB Oct 6).
Watch this week: Fri Nov 6: a Friday close ≥ $240.21 (-0.1%) lifts RS vs the S&P/TSX off Est. Down; a Friday close below the 40-wk SMA $223.75 is the Trade Breakdown.
APPENDIX · BMO (TSX) · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARDHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 223.75.
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $227.10–232.01 | -3.6% to -5.6% | wk low 09-04, wk low 10-09 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $227.10 | -5.6% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 219.75–223.75 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $249.59 | +3.8% | top of R1 (wk high 09-04, wk low 07-31) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Early Up: Above 50-day; daily RS vs S&P/TSX Est. Up. |
Scores · Trend 36.7
| RS vs S&P/TSX (20) + sector (10) | 2.0 + 0.0 = 2.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 20 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 36.7 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 70.3
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 18.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 18 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive & rising | 25.0 / 25 |
| Band position | 9.3 / 20 |
| Raw | 70.3 (Early Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 70.3 Early Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (BMO (TSX) close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P/TSX | 5 Established Down (+) → | -1.11% | +2.77% | Est. Up ≥ 274.16 (+14.0%) · Early Up ≥ 241.50 · Est. Down < 240.21 |
| Trend · XFN | 5 Established Down (−) → | -2.39% | -0.95% | Est. Up ≥ 257.30 (+7.0%) · Early Up ≥ 245.55 · Est. Down < 244.25 |
| Trading · S&P/TSX | 1 Established Up (−) ↑ | +1.98% | -0.35% | Est. Up ≥ 236.76 (-1.6%) · Est. Down < 215.52 |
| Trading · XFN | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -0.61% | -1.46% | Est. Up ≥ 250.58 (+4.2%) · Early Up ≥ 242.59 · Est. Down < 241.29 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 240.56)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R2 | 258.21–259.20 | +7.3% to +7.7% | wk high 07-17 258.21 · ATH 08-17 259.20 |
| R1 | 244.80–249.59 | +1.8% to +3.8% | wk high 09-04 244.80 · wk low 07-31 245.98 · wk high 09-25 249.59 |
| S1 | 227.10–232.01 | -3.6% to -5.6% | wk low 09-04 232.01 · wk low 10-09 227.10 |
| S2 | 219.75–223.75 | -7.0% to -8.7% | 40-wk SMA 223.75 · 200-day SMA 222.75 · 50% 219.75 |
| S3 | 210.44–212.74 | -11.6% to -12.5% | wk high 05-08 212.74 · wk high 04-24 210.73 · 61.8% 210.44 |
| ATH | 259.20 | +7.7% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 227.10 (-5.6%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 219.75–223.75.
- Trend Breakdown (reference, S2 floor): Friday close < 219.75 (-8.7%): information only, no verdict impact. Next support S3 210.44–212.74.
- Trend vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 274.16 (+14.0%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 241.50 · Est. Down < 240.21 (-0.1%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 236.76 · Est. Down < 215.52.
Sluymer context
- CB Sep 8 p58: “BMO’s consolidation at overbought levels… continues holding first support at its yellow 100-day ma near 232 with next support at the red 200-day ma near 211.”
- CB Oct 6: “Banks (BMO, NA) remain in choppy ranges we expect will continue well into Q4.”
- CB Oct 6 p63: TSX Bank Index momentum “has yet to move back to oversold levels suggesting further choppy trading well into Q4.”
- CB Oct 6 p64: “BMO’s pause/pullback continues with major support closer to 220.”
- CB Oct 13: “Rate-sensitive stocks, such as ENB, TRP, PPL, FTS and H are becoming oversold with early signs of bottoming near support.”
- CB Oct 13: CADUSD “weak but oversold short-term challenging next support at 0.70”; US 10-yr “beginning to stall” at 5.35%.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P/TSX Composite (20 pts) and XFN (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Holder levels (simple S/R: 40-wk SMA, 200-day SMA, 50%/61.8% retracements, 2-yr weekly swings and prior breakouts, ATH; ≥2 tools within 3% per band): Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next band above it, else the ATH, else none (blue sky); Trade Breakdown = the 40-wk SMA (Friday close below it = flag, verdict REVIEW); Trend Breakdown (S2 floor) and Profit-Taking are reference only and do not change the verdict. Trend Score (8–16 wk) = relative strength (30 pts) + structure (30 pts) rescaled to 100: Up ≥ 60, Neutral 45–59, Down < 45, confirmed after two consecutive Friday closes; descriptive, not a forecast. Rates modifier uses the US 10-yr (Sluymer's global rate gauge). Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of ~210 current S&P/TSX Composite members (dashboard universe) with a rising weekly Coppock, in the spirit of his TSX Quadrant Balance; survivorship bias; regime input only. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).