APTX.TO · Technical Trading Scorecard

APPENDIX · APTX (TSX) · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD

Held-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA n/a.

For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)

Level	Price	From close	Note
Buy zone	$32.50–33.11	-2.7% to -4.5%	50% retr., wk low 09-18
Trading stop · daily close	below $32.50	-4.5%	trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 31.05–31.45
Breakout Buy Level	close above $40.18	+18.1%	top of R1 (ATH 07-16)
Trading (10–20 day) state	Established Up: Above 50-day; daily RS vs S&P/TSX Est. Up.

Scores · Trend 5.0

Short history (21 wks): RS vs S&P/TSX (20) + sector (10)	2.0 + 0.0
Structure (computable checks)	0 / 10
Score = points earned × 100 / 40 computable points	5.0 / 100
Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45)	Down
Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays, on the history that exists)	confirmed Down
Trend (confirmed)	Down
– Fri close above 40-wk SMA n/a (short history) · – 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) n/a (short history) · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · – Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA n/a (short history) · – 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) n/a (short history) Weekly raw states: 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down.

Scores · Trading 86.9

RS (S&P 20 + sector 10)	20.0 + 10.0 / 30
Structure	14 / 25
Coppock (daily) — positive & rising	25.0 / 25
Band position	17.9 / 20
Raw	86.9 (Established Up)
Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2)	+0
Final	86.9 Established Up
✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5

Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)

Horizon · benchmark	State	RS vs SMA	RS chg	Phase-transition price (APTX (TSX) close needed)
Trend · S&P/TSX	5 Established Down (+) →	-0.57%	+6.87%	Est. Up ≥ 43.00 (+26.4%) · Early Up ≥ 33.39 · Est. Down < 33.21
Trend · XHC	5 Established Down (−) →	-9.16%	-0.03%	Early Up ≥ 36.49 · Est. Down < 36.29
Trading · S&P/TSX	1 Established Up (+) →	+5.75%	+3.11%	Est. Up ≥ 32.38 (-4.8%) · Est. Down < 24.40
Trading · XHC	1 Established Up (+) ↑	+2.10%	+0.88%	Est. Up ≥ 33.48 (-1.6%) · Est. Down < 32.07

Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 34.03)

Band	Range	Distance	Tools in the cluster
R1	40.18–40.18	+18.1% to +18.1%	ATH 07-16 40.18
S1	32.50–33.11	-2.7% to -4.5%	50% 33.11 · wk low 09-18 32.50
S2	31.05–31.45	-7.6% to -8.8%	61.8% 31.45 · wk low 09-04 31.05
ATH	40.18	+18.1%	all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used)

Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)

Stops & phase transitions

Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 32.50 (-4.5%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 31.05–31.45.
Trend Breakdown (reference, S2 floor): Friday close < 31.05 (-8.8%): information only, no verdict impact. No lower band computed.
Trend vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 43.00 (+26.4%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 33.39 · Est. Down < 33.21 (-2.4%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
Trading vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 32.38 · Est. Down < 24.40.

Sluymer context

CB Oct 13: “Rate-sensitive stocks, such as ENB, TRP, PPL, FTS and H are becoming oversold with early signs of bottoming near support.”
CB Oct 13: CADUSD “weak but oversold short-term challenging next support at 0.70”; US 10-yr “beginning to stall” at 5.35%.

Notes & caveats

Benchmarks: S&P/TSX Composite (20 pts) and XHC (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Holder levels (simple S/R: 40-wk SMA, 200-day SMA, 50%/61.8% retracements, 2-yr weekly swings and prior breakouts, ATH; ≥2 tools within 3% per band): Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next band above it, else the ATH, else none (blue sky); Trade Breakdown = the 40-wk SMA (Friday close below it = flag, verdict REVIEW); Trend Breakdown (S2 floor) and Profit-Taking are reference only and do not change the verdict. Trend Score (8–16 wk) = relative strength (30 pts) + structure (30 pts) rescaled to 100: Up ≥ 60, Neutral 45–59, Down < 45, confirmed after two consecutive Friday closes; descriptive, not a forecast. Short history (21 wks): under the 104 weekly bars of a full card. Checks that need more history (Fri close above 40-wk SMA, 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks), Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA, 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep)) are left out of both the points earned and the points possible, and the score is rescaled to 0–100 (40 points computable). Trend shows N/A under 10 weekly bars or when fewer than 30 points can be computed. The 2-Friday confirmation uses the history that exists. Rates modifier uses the US 10-yr (Sluymer's global rate gauge). Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of ~210 current S&P/TSX Composite members (dashboard universe) with a rising weekly Coppock, in the spirit of his TSX Quadrant Balance; survivorship bias; regime input only. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).

Breakout Level confirms hold	Friday close above $40.18	+18.1%	top of R1 (ATH 07-16)
Profit-Taking Zone (ref.) reference · rebalance if overweight	—	blue sky	none: blue sky above the Breakout
Trade Breakdown review thesis, no trade	Friday close below n/a	n/a	40-wk SMA n/a
Trend Breakdown (ref.) reference · no verdict impact	Friday close below $31.05	-8.8%	trend stop; no lower band computed

APTX TSX

Trend health

Key levels for holders