TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
ABX TSX
Barrick Mining Corp · held position
Last Price (CAD) $51.93
Unrealized G/L -13.3% (−C$5,055)
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30) · CAD
Portfolio weight 1.82% (Canada)
REVIEWHigh risk · consider trim 50%High risk: Trend Down (score 21); Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA ($57.88). Consider trimming 50% if the story has weakened.
Trend health
Trend Score (8–16 wk)
● Down
Score 21/100. Lags S&P/TSX, leads sector; below falling 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Lagging the S&P/TSX for 3 weeks (-11.7% relative)
Leading TSX gold (XGD) for 2 weeks (+2.6% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $53.40 | +2.8% | top of R1 (wk low 05-08, wk high 07-24) |
Profit-Taking Zone (ref.)
reference · rebalance if overweight | $53.94–55.45 | +3.9% to +6.8% | wk low 05-22, wk low ’25-12-12 |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | TRIGGERED · reclaim $57.88 | +11.5% | 40-wk SMA 57.88 |
Trend Breakdown (ref.)
reference · no verdict impact | Friday close below $49.92 | -3.9% | trend stop; next support $45.38–45.50 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (40-wk SMA; triggered at $57.88): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (reference only) (Friday close < $49.92): no verdict impact; reassess if the story has also weakened. Next support $45.38–45.50.
Sluymer's view: No direct call. Not named in the 15 reports. Gold: “Gold broke below 4273 support challenging its next support band between 4053-4176” (CB Oct 13).
Watch this week: Fri Nov 6: a Friday close ≥ $50.14 (-3.4%) lifts RS vs the S&P/TSX off Est. Down; a Friday close back above the 40-wk SMA $57.88 clears the Trade Breakdown.
APPENDIX · ABX (TSX) · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARDHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 57.88 (already below on the Friday close: Trade Breakdown triggered).
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $50.94–51.73 | -0.4% to -1.9% | wk low 06-12, wk high ’25-10-17, 50% retr. |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $50.94 | -1.9% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 49.92–50.10 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $53.40 | +2.8% | top of R1 (wk low 05-08, wk high 07-24) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Established Down: Below 50-day; daily RS vs S&P/TSX Est. Down. |
Scores · Trend 21.2
| RS vs S&P/TSX (20) + sector (10) | 0.0 + 7.7 = 7.7 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 5 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 21.2 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Neutral → 10-09 Neutral → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 20.6
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 10.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 0 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — negative & falling | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 8.2 / 20 |
| Raw | 20.6 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 20.6 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (ABX (TSX) close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P/TSX | 5 Established Down (−) → | -9.64% | -9.17% | Est. Up ≥ 57.82 (+11.3%) · Est. Down < 50.14 |
| Trend · XGD | 2 Early Up (+) → | +1.62% | +2.64% | Est. Up ≥ 54.84 (+5.6%) · Early Up ≥ 50.77 · Est. Down < 50.50 |
| Trading · S&P/TSX | 5 Established Down (−) → | -4.32% | -2.09% | Est. Up ≥ 65.91 (+26.9%) · Early Up ≥ 54.35 · Est. Down < 54.06 |
| Trading · XGD | 1 Established Up (+) → | +0.96% | +0.28% | Est. Up ≥ 51.61 (-0.6%) · Est. Down < 48.35 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 51.93)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 57.88–59.46 | +11.5% to +14.5% | 40-wk SMA 57.88 · wk low 09-18 58.29 · 200-day SMA 58.41 · wk low 01-02 58.56 · wk low 09-04 59.46 |
| R2 | 53.94–55.45 | +3.9% to +6.8% | wk low 05-22 53.94 · wk low ’25-12-12 55.45 |
| R1 | 52.00–53.40 | +0.1% to +2.8% | wk low 05-08 52.00 · wk high 07-24 53.40 |
| S1 | 50.94–51.73 | -0.4% to -1.9% | wk low 06-12 51.73 · wk high ’25-10-17 51.09 · 50% 50.94 |
| S2 | 49.92–50.10 | -3.5% to -3.9% | wk low 03-20 50.10 · wk high ’25-09-26 49.92 |
| S3 | 45.38–45.50 | -12.4% to -12.6% | 61.8% 45.50 · wk low ’25-10-03 45.38 |
| ATH | 74.00 | +42.5% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 50.94 (-1.9%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 49.92–50.10.
- Trend Breakdown (reference, S2 floor): Friday close < 49.92 (-3.9%): information only, no verdict impact. Next support S3 45.38–45.50.
- Trend vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 57.82 (+11.3%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 57.82 · Est. Down < 50.14 (-3.4%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 65.91 · Early Up ≥ 54.35 · Est. Down < 54.06.
Sluymer context
- CB Oct 13: “Gold broke below 4273 support challenging its next support band between 4053-4176”; weekly: “a break below 3943 support would signal a failed bottoming pattern”.
- CB Oct 13: “Rate-sensitive stocks, such as ENB, TRP, PPL, FTS and H are becoming oversold with early signs of bottoming near support.”
- CB Oct 13: CADUSD “weak but oversold short-term challenging next support at 0.70”; US 10-yr “beginning to stall” at 5.35%.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P/TSX Composite (20 pts) and XGD (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Holder levels (simple S/R: 40-wk SMA, 200-day SMA, 50%/61.8% retracements, 2-yr weekly swings and prior breakouts, ATH; ≥2 tools within 3% per band): Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next band above it, else the ATH, else none (blue sky); Trade Breakdown = the 40-wk SMA (Friday close below it = flag, verdict REVIEW); Trend Breakdown (S2 floor) and Profit-Taking are reference only and do not change the verdict. Trend Score (8–16 wk) = relative strength (30 pts) + structure (30 pts) rescaled to 100: Up ≥ 60, Neutral 45–59, Down < 45, confirmed after two consecutive Friday closes; descriptive, not a forecast. Rates modifier uses the US 10-yr (Sluymer's global rate gauge). Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of ~210 current S&P/TSX Composite members (dashboard universe) with a rising weekly Coppock, in the spirit of his TSX Quadrant Balance; survivorship bias; regime input only. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).