$76.00
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
ARKK holding · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $80.20–82.50 | +5.5% to +8.6% | wk low ’25-01-17, wk high 07-03, wk high 10-16 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $74.76 | -1.6% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $71.25 | -6.2% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $79.00 | +3.9% | top of R1 (wk low 09-04, wk high 05-08) |
APPENDIX · XYZ · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 43.3
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 0.0 + 6.0 = 6.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 20 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 43.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Neutral → 10-16 Neutral → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 49.0
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 12.0 + 10.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 8 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — negative & falling | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 16.5 / 20 |
| Raw | 49.0 (Neutral) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 49.0 Neutral |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (XYZ close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -2.51% | -1.12% | Est. Up ≥ 82.38 (+8.4%) · Early Up ≥ 78.19 · Est. Down < 77.77 |
| Trend · XLK | 3 Neutral (+) ↑ | -0.01% | +0.01% | Est. Up ≥ 80.20 (+5.5%) · Early Up ≥ 76.07 · Est. Down < 75.67 |
| Trading · S&P | 3 Neutral (+) ↑ | +0.19% | +0.74% | Est. Up ≥ 76.17 (+0.2%) · Est. Down < 70.03 |
| Trading · XLK | 1 Established Up (+) ↑ | +3.46% | +5.61% | Est. Up ≥ 73.89 (-2.8%) · Est. Down < 54.39 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 76.00)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 84.08–86.20 | +10.6% to +13.4% | wk high 07-17 84.08 · wk low ’25-01-31 84.25 · wk low 2024-12-20 86.20 |
| R2 | 80.20–82.50 | +5.5% to +8.6% | wk low ’25-01-17 80.20 · wk high 07-03 81.04 · wk high 10-16 81.17 · wk high ’25-10-10 81.68 · wk high ’25-10-31 81.70 · wk high ’25-08-29 82.25 · wk high ’25-08-08 82.50 |
| R1 | 76.96–79.00 | +1.3% to +3.9% | wk low 09-04 76.96 · wk high 05-08 77.16 · wk low 08-14 77.23 · wk high 06-05 77.62 · wk high ’25-09-26 79.00 |
| S1 | 74.76–75.73 | -0.4% to -1.6% | wk low 07-24 75.73 · wk high 04-24 75.23 · wk high 2024-10-25 75.00 · wk low 07-10 74.76 |
| S2 | 71.25–72.99 | -4.0% to -6.2% | wk low ’25-08-01 72.99 · wk low ’25-09-12 72.85 · wk low 10-02 72.28 · wk high 01-09 72.22 · wk low ’25-10-17 71.92 · wk low 06-26 71.50 · 40-wk SMA 71.49 · wk low ’25-09-26 71.44 · 200-day SMA 71.25 |
| S3 | 67.08–69.03 | -9.2% to -11.7% | wk low 2024-11-08 69.03 · wk low 05-01 67.80 · wk high 03-06 67.74 · wk high ’25-11-28 67.48 · wk low 05-22 67.08 |
| ATH | 289.23 | +280.6% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 74.76 (-1.6%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 71.25–72.99.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 71.25 (-6.2%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 67.08–69.03.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 82.38 (+8.4%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 78.19 · Est. Down < 77.77 (+2.3%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 76.17 · Est. Down < 70.03.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-11-03 (https://assets.ark-funds.com/fund-documents/funds-etf-csv/ARK_INNOVATION_ETF_ARKK_HOLDINGS.csv (official ARK daily holdings CSV, date column 11/03/2026)); ETF weight 2.50%. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLK (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
