$10.98
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
ARKK holding · entry card
APPENDIX · XE · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 7.5
| Short history (28 wks): RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 2.0 + 1.0 |
| Structure (computable checks) | 0 / 10 |
| Score = points earned × 100 / 40 computable points | 7.5 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays, on the history that exists) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
– Fri close above 40-wk SMA n/a (short history) · – 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) n/a (short history) · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · – Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA n/a (short history) · – 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) n/a (short history)
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. |
Scores · Trading 36.5
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 11.4 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 5 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — BOUNCE tag — oversold & turning up inside a down structure (no boost) | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 17.6 / 20 |
| Raw | 36.5 (Early Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 36.5 Early Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (XE close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (+) → | -28.70% | +6.61% | |
| Trend · XLI | 5 Established Down (+) → | -25.92% | +5.73% | |
| Trading · S&P | 2 Early Up (−) ↑ | +1.48% | -4.28% | Early Up ≥ 10.81 · Est. Down < 10.75 |
| Trading · XLI | 5 Established Down (−) → | -1.96% | -6.81% | Early Up ≥ 11.18 · Est. Down < 11.12 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 10.98)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R2 | 23.94–23.99 | +118.0% to +118.5% | wk high 06-19 23.94 · wk high 08-14 23.99 |
| R1 | 16.42–16.78 | +49.5% to +52.8% | wk high 10-09 16.42 · wk high 09-25 16.78 |
| S1 | 10.04–10.04 | -8.6% to -8.6% | wk low 10-23 10.04 |
| ATH | 37.10 | +237.9% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 10.04 (-8.6%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor: no support nearby.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): No support nearby: only one support band exists below the price, so there is no separate trend stop.
- Trend vs S&P: (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Early Up ≥ 10.81 · Est. Down < 10.75.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-11-03 (https://assets.ark-funds.com/fund-documents/funds-etf-csv/ARK_INNOVATION_ETF_ARKK_HOLDINGS.csv (official ARK daily holdings CSV, date column 11/03/2026)); ETF weight 0.82%. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLI (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Short history (28 wks): under the 104 weekly bars of a full card. Checks that need more history (Fri close above 40-wk SMA, 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks), Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA, 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep)) are left out of both the points earned and the points possible, and the score is rescaled to 0–100 (40 points computable). Trend shows N/A under 10 weekly bars or when fewer than 30 points can be computed. The 2-Friday confirmation uses the history that exists. Too little history for a 2-tool support band, so the support levels are single-tool levels. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
