$68.64
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
ARKK holding · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $72.95–73.57 | +6.3% to +7.2% | wk high 07-03, wk high 04-24, wk low ’25-01-03 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $66.81 | -2.7% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $61.55 | -10.3% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $72.18 | +5.2% | top of R1 (wk low 2024-12-13, 40-wk SMA) |
APPENDIX · WGS · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 13.3
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 2.0 + 1.0 = 3.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 5 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 13.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 45.4
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 18.0 + 5.7 / 30 |
| Structure | 0 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — BOUNCE tag — oversold & turning up inside a down structure (no boost) | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 19.2 / 20 |
| Raw | 45.4 (Neutral) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 45.4 Neutral |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (WGS close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (+) → | -7.42% | +9.70% | Est. Up ≥ 75.47 (+10.0%) · Est. Down < 61.15 |
| Trend · XLV | 5 Established Down (+) → | -15.92% | +3.78% | Est. Up ≥ 82.99 (+20.9%) · Est. Down < 79.24 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (−) ↑ | +5.33% | -1.42% | Est. Up ≥ 65.19 (-5.0%) · Est. Down < 59.18 |
| Trading · XLV | 2 Early Up (−) ↑ | +1.53% | -3.34% | Est. Up ≥ 78.80 (+14.8%) · Early Up ≥ 67.43 · Est. Down < 67.07 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 68.64)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 75.15–76.21 | +9.5% to +11.0% | wk low 08-21 75.15 · wk low ’25-07-25 76.04 · wk high ’25-06-06 76.21 |
| R2 | 72.95–73.57 | +6.3% to +7.2% | wk high 07-03 72.95 · wk high 04-24 73.46 · wk low ’25-01-03 73.57 |
| R1 | 70.27–72.18 | +2.4% to +5.2% | wk low 2024-12-13 70.27 · 40-wk SMA 70.30 · 200-day SMA 71.50 · wk low ’25-04-04 72.18 |
| S1 | 66.81–68.55 | -0.1% to -2.7% | wk low 03-06 68.55 · wk low ’25-01-17 66.81 |
| S2 | 61.55–63.31 | -7.8% to -10.3% | wk high 06-12 63.31 · wk high 2024-10-18 61.96 · wk low ’25-06-20 61.55 |
| S3 | 58.14–58.62 | -14.6% to -15.3% | wk low ’25-02-07 58.62 · wk low 07-24 58.14 |
| ATH | 896.94 | +1206.7% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 66.81 (-2.7%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 61.55–63.31.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 61.55 (-10.3%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 58.14–58.62.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 75.47 (+10.0%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 75.47 · Est. Down < 61.15 (-10.9%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 65.19 · Est. Down < 59.18.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-11-03 (https://assets.ark-funds.com/fund-documents/funds-etf-csv/ARK_INNOVATION_ETF_ARKK_HOLDINGS.csv (official ARK daily holdings CSV, date column 11/03/2026)); ETF weight 0.99%. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLV (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
