$269.35
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
ARKK holding · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $296.82–301.86 | +10.2% to +12.1% | wk low 07-17, wk low 07-31, wk low 05-01 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $191.56 | -28.9% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $150.71 | -44.0% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $280.02 | +4.0% | top of R1 (wk low 04-03, 61.8% retr.) |
APPENDIX · TER · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 23.3
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 0.0 + 0.0 = 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 14 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 23.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 10.2
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 3 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — negative & falling | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 4.8 / 20 |
| Raw | 10.2 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 10.2 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (TER close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -23.99% | -14.69% | Est. Down < 362.20 |
| Trend · XLK | 5 Established Down (−) → | -21.83% | -13.72% | Early Up ≥ 353.35 · Est. Down < 351.47 |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -12.96% | -7.25% | Early Up ≥ 307.22 · Est. Down < 305.58 |
| Trading · XLK | 5 Established Down (−) → | -10.00% | -2.77% | Early Up ≥ 297.65 · Est. Down < 296.06 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 269.35)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 319.72–327.99 | +18.7% to +21.8% | 50% 319.72 · wk low 09-04 326.00 · wk low 09-18 326.37 · wk high 03-27 327.42 · wk high 02-13 327.99 |
| R2 | 296.82–301.86 | +10.2% to +12.1% | wk low 07-17 296.82 · wk low 07-31 301.00 · wk low 05-01 301.86 |
| R1 | 273.07–280.02 | +1.4% to +4.0% | wk low 04-03 273.07 · 61.8% 280.02 |
| S1 | 191.56–193.40 | -28.2% to -28.9% | wk low 01-02 193.40 · wk high ’25-11-07 191.56 |
| S2 | 150.71–151.52 | -43.7% to -44.0% | wk low ’25-11-21 151.52 · wk high ’25-10-10 150.71 |
| S3 | 131.75–135.36 | -49.7% to -51.1% | wk high 2024-10-18 135.36 · wk high 2024-12-20 133.34 · wk low ’25-10-10 131.75 |
| ATH | 487.91 | +81.1% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 191.56 (-28.9%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 150.71–151.52.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 150.71 (-44.0%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 131.75–135.36.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Down < 362.20 (+34.5%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Early Up ≥ 307.22 · Est. Down < 305.58.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-11-03 (https://assets.ark-funds.com/fund-documents/funds-etf-csv/ARK_INNOVATION_ETF_ARKK_HOLDINGS.csv (official ARK daily holdings CSV, date column 11/03/2026)); ETF weight 0.70%. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLK (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
