TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
$77.80
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
ARKK holding · entry card
BUYConfirmed breakout, but extended: the old $68.86–70.27 retest zone is below the trend stop. Wait for a pullback to S1 $74.59–76.33; stop = Friday close below $71.40.
Action levels
| Extended – wait for S1 | $74.59–76.33 | -1.9% to -4.1% | entry = top of S1 $76.33; the old 68.86–70.27 breakout-retest zone is dropped because it sits below the trend stop (71.40) |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $89.09–91.45 | +14.5% to +17.5% | wk high 10-02, wk high ’25-09-12, wk high ’25-02-14 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $74.59 | -4.1% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $71.40 | -8.2% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $79.96 | +2.8% | top of R1 (wk high ’25-12-12, wk high 2024-11-15) |
Trend at a glance
Trend Score (8–16 wk)
● Up
Score 83/100. Leads S&P and sector; above rising 40-wk.
Trading (10–20 day)
● Established Up
Above 50-day; daily RS vs S&P Est. Up.
Sluymer's view: No recent call: not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Watch this week: Fri Nov 6: extended, wait for a pullback to S1 $74.59–76.33 (-1.9%); a Friday close below $71.40 (-8.2%) invalidates.
APPENDIX · TEM · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 83.3
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 20.0 + 10.0 = 30.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 20 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 83.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Up |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Up |
| Trend (confirmed) | Up |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✖ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 0/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Neutral → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Up. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 84.4
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 9.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 20 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive & rising | 25.0 / 25 |
| Band position | 10.4 / 20 |
| Raw | 84.4 (Established Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 84.4 Established Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (TEM close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +14.70% | +12.76% | Est. Up ≥ 63.78 (-18.0%) · Est. Down < 54.46 |
| Trend · XLV | 1 Established Up (+) → | +4.55% | +6.66% | Est. Up ≥ 69.86 (-10.2%) · Est. Down < 54.93 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) ↑ | +11.96% | +1.95% | Est. Up ≥ 69.86 (-10.2%) · Est. Down < 54.46 |
| Trading · XLV | 1 Established Up (−) ↑ | +8.02% | -0.04% | Est. Up ≥ 72.20 (-7.2%) · Est. Down < 62.98 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 77.80)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R2 | 89.09–91.45 | +14.5% to +17.5% | wk high 10-02 89.09 · wk high ’25-09-12 91.06 · wk high ’25-02-14 91.45 |
| R1 | 78.78–79.96 | +1.3% to +2.8% | wk high ’25-12-12 78.78 · wk high 2024-11-15 79.49 · wk high ’25-11-28 79.96 |
| S1 | 74.59–76.33 | -1.9% to -4.1% | wk high 01-16 76.33 · wk high ’25-06-20 74.83 · wk low ’25-09-26 74.59 |
| S2 | 71.40–72.96 | -6.2% to -8.2% | wk high 08-21 72.96 · wk high ’25-05-16 71.97 · wk low ’25-09-05 71.40 |
| S3 | 68.75–70.27 | -9.7% to -11.6% | 50% 70.27 · wk high 01-30 70.16 · wk high 2024-12-06 68.95 · wk high ’25-05-30 68.75 |
| ATH | 104.32 | +34.1% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 74.59 (-4.1%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 71.40–72.96.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 71.40 (-8.2%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 68.75–70.27.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 63.78 (-18.0%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 63.78 · Est. Down < 54.46 (-30.0%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 69.86 · Est. Down < 54.46.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-11-03 (https://assets.ark-funds.com/fund-documents/funds-etf-csv/ARK_INNOVATION_ETF_ARKK_HOLDINGS.csv (official ARK daily holdings CSV, date column 11/03/2026)); ETF weight 6.35%. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLV (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Short history: the 200-wk SMA is not available, so that structure check scores 0. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).