SOFI
Sofi Technologies Inc
$16.77
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
ARKK holding · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $17.40–17.69 | +3.8% to +5.5% | 40-wk SMA, wk low 08-21, 200-day SMA |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $16.61 | -1.0% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $15.50 | -7.6% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $17.19 | +2.5% | top of R1 (wk low 03-06, wk low 09-04) |
APPENDIX · SOFI · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 30.0
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 12.0 + 1.0 = 13.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 5 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 30.0 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 72.0
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 18.0 + 9.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 10 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive & rising | 25.0 / 25 |
| Band position | 10.0 / 20 |
| Raw | 72.0 (Early Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 72.0 Early Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (SOFI close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 3 Neutral (+) ↑ | +0.18% | +16.40% | Est. Up ≥ 19.60 (+16.9%) · Early Up ≥ 16.72 · Est. Down < 16.63 |
| Trend · XLF | 5 Established Down (+) → | -0.83% | +13.17% | Est. Up ≥ 19.65 (+17.2%) · Early Up ≥ 16.92 · Est. Down < 16.83 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (−) ↑ | +9.51% | -2.86% | Est. Up ≥ 15.46 (-7.8%) · Est. Down < 11.74 |
| Trading · XLF | 1 Established Up (−) ↑ | +5.95% | -5.19% | Est. Up ≥ 15.94 (-4.9%) · Est. Down < 13.38 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 16.77)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 17.96–18.42 | +7.1% to +9.8% | wk high 09-25 17.96 · wk high ’25-01-24 18.42 |
| R2 | 17.40–17.69 | +3.8% to +5.5% | 40-wk SMA 17.40 · wk low 08-21 17.64 · 200-day SMA 17.69 |
| R1 | 16.80–17.19 | +0.2% to +2.5% | wk low 03-06 16.80 · wk low 09-04 16.92 · wk high ’25-02-21 17.11 · wk high 2024-12-20 17.19 |
| S1 | 16.61–16.72 | -0.3% to -1.0% | wk low 06-26 16.72 · wk high 2024-11-29 16.61 |
| S2 | 15.50–15.65 | -6.7% to -7.6% | wk low 06-12 15.65 · wk low 05-01 15.50 |
| S3 | 14.51–14.93 | -11.0% to -13.5% | wk low 04-03 14.93 · wk low 05-22 14.92 · wk high ’25-03-07 14.90 · wk low 07-31 14.88 · wk low 2024-12-06 14.85 · wk high ’25-05-16 14.78 · wk low 2024-12-20 14.58 · wk high ’25-05-02 14.51 |
| ATH | 32.73 | +95.2% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 16.61 (-1.0%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 15.50–15.65.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 15.50 (-7.6%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 14.51–14.93.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 19.60 (+16.9%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 16.72 · Est. Down < 16.63 (-0.8%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 15.46 · Est. Down < 11.74.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-11-03 (https://assets.ark-funds.com/fund-documents/funds-etf-csv/ARK_INNOVATION_ETF_ARKK_HOLDINGS.csv (official ARK daily holdings CSV, date column 11/03/2026)); ETF weight 0.60%. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLF (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
