SHOP
Shopify Inc - Class A
$142.57
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
ARKK holding · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $155.15–158.87 | +8.8% to +11.4% | wk low 01-02, wk low ’25-12-19, wk high 08-28 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $135.96 | -4.6% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $130.75 | -8.3% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $145.16 | +1.8% | top of R1 (wk low 08-21, wk low ’25-10-17) |
APPENDIX · SHOP · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 86.7
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 18.0 + 9.0 = 27.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 25 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 86.7 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Up |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Up |
| Trend (confirmed) | Up |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Up. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 26.9
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 15 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — negative & falling | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 9.4 / 20 |
| Raw | 26.9 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 26.9 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (SHOP close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 1 Established Up (−) → | +9.54% | -6.12% | Est. Up ≥ 145.38 (+2.0%) · Est. Down < 99.80 |
| Trend · XLK | 1 Established Up (−) → | +12.50% | -5.05% | Est. Up ≥ 141.28 (-0.9%) · Est. Down < 99.80 |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -13.30% | -12.86% | Early Up ≥ 164.55 · Est. Down < 163.67 |
| Trading · XLK | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -10.40% | -8.65% | Est. Up ≥ 178.90 (+25.5%) · Early Up ≥ 159.49 · Est. Down < 158.64 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 142.57)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 169.69–172.98 | +19.0% to +21.3% | wk high ’25-10-10 169.69 · wk high 01-16 170.90 · wk high ’25-12-26 172.98 |
| R2 | 155.15–158.87 | +8.8% to +11.4% | wk low 01-02 155.15 · wk low ’25-12-19 155.66 · wk high 08-28 156.49 · wk high ’25-08-08 156.85 · wk high 08-14 158.87 |
| R1 | 144.12–145.16 | +1.1% to +1.8% | wk low 08-21 144.12 · wk low ’25-10-17 145.16 |
| S1 | 135.96–139.50 | -2.2% to -4.6% | wk low ’25-09-26 139.50 · wk high 02-13 139.10 · wk high 04-24 137.30 · wk low ’25-11-21 136.18 · wk high 03-06 135.96 |
| S2 | 130.75–134.75 | -5.5% to -8.3% | wk low ’25-08-22 134.75 · wk low ’25-09-05 133.40 · wk high 07-10 130.75 |
| S3 | 126.01–129.81 | -8.9% to -11.6% | 200-day SMA 129.81 · wk high ’25-02-21 129.38 · wk high ’25-07-25 129.29 · 40-wk SMA 128.53 · wk low 09-25 126.39 · 50% 126.01 |
| ATH | 182.19 | +27.8% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 135.96 (-4.6%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 130.75–134.75.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 130.75 (-8.3%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 126.01–129.81.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 145.38 (+2.0%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 145.38 · Est. Down < 99.80 (-30.0%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Early Up ≥ 164.55 · Est. Down < 163.67.
Sluymer context
- 2026-08-18 chartbook: “SHOP is overbought short-term with a pullback likely and 165-190 support that we expect will hold on pullbacks.”
- 2026-09-08 chartbook: “SHOP remains in an uptrend with a pullback underway with 185 support we expect will hold near its rising blue 50-day ma. Source: RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg, Optuma”
- 2026-09-22 chartbook: “SHOP is oversold and bottoming following its short-term pullback to support at 175 coinciding with its 50% retracement.”
- 2026-09-29 chartbook: “SHOP’s rebound from support near its red 200-day ma continues with pullbacks expected to be short lived.”
- 2026-10-06 chartbook: “SHOP’s rebound from its 2022-2026 uptrend remains intact with the next extension levels at 252 followed by 329.”
- 2026-10-13 chartbook: “SHOP’s uptrend remains intact approaching next resistance between 252-253 where a short-term pause is likely given daily momentum in the top right panel is overbought and poised to peak.”
Notes & caveats
ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-11-03 (https://assets.ark-funds.com/fund-documents/funds-etf-csv/ARK_INNOVATION_ETF_ARKK_HOLDINGS.csv (official ARK daily holdings CSV, date column 11/03/2026)); ETF weight 3.15%. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLK (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
