$54.43
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
ARKK holding · entry card
APPENDIX · RKLB · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 13.3
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 2.0 + 1.0 = 3.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 5 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 13.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 25.7
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 11.4 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 5 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — BOUNCE tag — oversold & turning up inside a down structure (no boost) | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 6.8 / 20 |
| Raw | 25.7 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 25.7 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (RKLB close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (+) → | -16.74% | +8.78% | Early Up ≥ 65.71 · Est. Down < 65.36 |
| Trend · XLI | 5 Established Down (+) → | -13.75% | +7.88% | Early Up ≥ 63.66 · Est. Down < 63.32 |
| Trading · S&P | 2 Early Up (−) ↑ | +1.46% | -6.06% | Early Up ≥ 53.48 · Est. Down < 53.20 |
| Trading · XLI | 5 Established Down (−) → | -1.97% | -8.54% | Early Up ≥ 55.31 · Est. Down < 55.01 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 54.43)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 60.51–61.45 | +11.2% to +12.9% | wk low 09-18 60.51 · wk low 09-04 61.45 |
| R2 | 58.20–58.41 | +6.9% to +7.3% | wk low 07-31 58.20 · wk low ’25-10-24 58.41 |
| R1 | 55.17–56.13 | +1.4% to +3.1% | wk high ’25-09-19 55.17 · wk low 04-03 56.13 |
| S1 | 49.92–50.92 | -6.4% to -8.3% | wk high ’25-08-29 50.92 · wk high ’25-08-08 49.92 |
| S2 | 42.31–42.39 | -22.1% to -22.3% | wk low ’25-09-05 42.39 · wk low ’25-08-01 42.31 |
| S3 | 37.57–38.26 | -29.7% to -31.0% | wk low ’25-08-22 38.26 · wk low ’25-11-21 37.57 |
| ATH | 151.00 | +177.4% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 49.92 (-8.3%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 42.31–42.39.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 42.31 (-22.3%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 37.57–38.26.
- Trend vs S&P: above its 16-wk avg ≥ 65.71 · Est. Down < 65.36 (+20.1%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Early Up ≥ 53.48 · Est. Down < 53.20.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-11-03 (https://assets.ark-funds.com/fund-documents/funds-etf-csv/ARK_INNOVATION_ETF_ARKK_HOLDINGS.csv (official ARK daily holdings CSV, date column 11/03/2026)); ETF weight 1.25%. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLI (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
