KTOS
Kratos Defense & Security
$40.99
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
ARKK holding · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $60.71–61.43 | +48.1% to +49.9% | wk low ’25-08-22, 40-wk SMA, wk low ’25-09-05 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $36.37 | -11.3% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $32.85 | -19.9% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $46.01 | +12.2% | top of R1 (wk low 09-11, wk low 07-17) |
APPENDIX · KTOS · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 13.3
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 2.0 + 1.0 = 3.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 5 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 13.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 64.3
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 18.0 + 4.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 5 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive & rising | 25.0 / 25 |
| Band position | 12.3 / 20 |
| Raw | 64.3 (Early Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 64.3 Early Up |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (KTOS close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (+) → | -13.49% | +2.72% | Est. Up ≥ 53.92 (+31.5%) · Early Up ≥ 47.68 · Est. Down < 47.43 |
| Trend · XLI | 5 Established Down (+) → | -10.25% | +1.88% | Est. Up ≥ 46.21 (+12.7%) · Early Up ≥ 46.10 · Est. Down < 45.86 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (−) ↑ | +3.36% | -4.08% | Est. Up ≥ 39.85 (-2.8%) · Est. Down < 36.68 |
| Trading · XLI | 3 Neutral (−) ↓ | -0.11% | -6.62% | Est. Up ≥ 41.88 (+2.2%) · Early Up ≥ 41.20 · Est. Down < 40.98 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 40.99)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 63.31–64.80 | +54.5% to +58.1% | 200-day SMA 63.31 · wk low 04-03 63.84 · wk low ’25-11-21 64.80 |
| R2 | 60.71–61.43 | +48.1% to +49.9% | wk low ’25-08-22 60.71 · 40-wk SMA 61.28 · wk low ’25-09-05 61.40 · wk high ’25-07-25 61.43 |
| R1 | 45.47–46.01 | +10.9% to +12.2% | wk low 09-11 45.47 · wk low 07-17 45.58 · wk low 06-26 46.01 |
| S1 | 36.37–36.85 | -10.1% to -11.3% | wk high ’25-05-02 36.85 · wk low 10-23 36.37 |
| S2 | 32.85–33.50 | -18.3% to -19.9% | wk high ’25-03-28 33.50 · wk low ’25-05-16 32.85 |
| S3 | 28.62–28.71 | -30.0% to -30.2% | wk high 2024-12-20 28.71 · wk high 2024-11-15 28.62 |
| ATH | 134.00 | +226.9% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 36.37 (-11.3%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 32.85–33.50.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 32.85 (-19.9%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 28.62–28.71.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 53.92 (+31.5%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 47.68 · Est. Down < 47.43 (+15.7%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 39.85 · Est. Down < 36.68.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-11-03 (https://assets.ark-funds.com/fund-documents/funds-etf-csv/ARK_INNOVATION_ETF_ARKK_HOLDINGS.csv (official ARK daily holdings CSV, date column 11/03/2026)); ETF weight 1.14%. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLI (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
