$278.27
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
ARKK holding · entry card
APPENDIX · GOOG · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 8.3
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 0.0 + 0.0 = 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 5 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 8.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Neutral → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 22.2
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 2.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 3 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — negative & falling | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 14.7 / 20 |
| Raw | 22.2 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 22.2 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (GOOG close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -16.46% | -16.56% | Early Up ≥ 332.68 · Est. Down < 330.91 |
| Trend · XLC | 5 Established Down (−) → | -8.93% | -8.81% | Est. Up ≥ 351.97 (+26.5%) · Early Up ≥ 305.85 · Est. Down < 304.22 |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (+) → | -10.69% | +0.54% | Early Up ≥ 310.58 · Est. Down < 308.93 |
| Trading · XLC | 5 Established Down (−) → | -7.93% | -1.66% | Early Up ≥ 302.16 · Est. Down < 300.55 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 278.27)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 314.89–322.61 | +13.2% to +15.9% | wk low 07-24 314.89 · wk high 02-27 319.45 · wk low 01-23 319.54 · 50% 322.61 |
| R2 | 303.29–311.07 | +9.0% to +11.8% | 61.8% 303.29 · wk high 03-13 311.07 |
| R1 | 291.93–297.45 | +4.9% to +6.9% | wk high ’25-10-31 291.93 · wk low 03-13 293.93 · wk low 02-20 296.90 · wk low ’25-12-19 297.45 |
| S1 | 271.41–271.54 | -2.4% to -2.5% | wk low 04-03 271.54 · wk low ’25-11-14 271.41 |
| S2 | 202.88–208.70 | -25.0% to -27.1% | wk high ’25-02-07 208.70 · wk high 2024-12-20 202.88 |
| S3 | 197.46–202.14 | -27.4% to -29.0% | wk high ’25-01-10 202.14 · wk high ’25-07-25 198.97 · wk low ’25-08-22 197.46 |
| ATH | 404.47 | +45.4% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 271.41 (-2.5%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 202.88–208.70.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 202.88 (-27.1%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 197.46–202.14.
- Trend vs S&P: above its 16-wk avg ≥ 332.68 · Est. Down < 330.91 (+18.9%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Early Up ≥ 310.58 · Est. Down < 308.93.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-11-03 (https://assets.ark-funds.com/fund-documents/funds-etf-csv/ARK_INNOVATION_ETF_ARKK_HOLDINGS.csv (official ARK daily holdings CSV, date column 11/03/2026)); ETF weight 0.83%. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLC (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
