$53.74
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
ARKK holding · entry card
APPENDIX · CRWV · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 0.0
| Short history (84 wks): RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 0.0 + 0.0 |
| Structure (computable checks) | 0 / 25 |
| Score = points earned × 100 / 55 computable points | 0.0 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays, on the history that exists) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · – Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA n/a (short history) · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. |
Scores · Trading 12.3
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 0 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — BOUNCE tag — oversold & turning up inside a down structure (no boost) | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 9.8 / 20 |
| Raw | 12.3 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 12.3 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (CRWV close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -30.35% | -9.68% | |
| Trend · XLK | 5 Established Down (−) → | -28.38% | -8.65% | |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -8.10% | -9.75% | Early Up ≥ 58.21 · Est. Down < 57.90 |
| Trading · XLK | 5 Established Down (−) → | -4.98% | -5.39% | Early Up ≥ 56.39 · Est. Down < 56.09 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 53.74)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 70.37–70.43 | +30.9% to +31.1% | wk low 03-06 70.37 · wk low 01-02 70.43 |
| R2 | 67.15–68.51 | +25.0% to +27.5% | wk low 04-03 67.15 · wk low 07-17 68.51 |
| R1 | 63.80–65.22 | +18.7% to +21.4% | wk low ’25-12-19 63.80 · wk high ’25-04-04 64.62 · wk low ’25-11-21 65.22 |
| S1 | 36.00–36.00 | -33.0% to -33.0% | wk low ’25-04-04 36.00 |
| S2 | 33.51–33.51 | -37.6% to -37.6% | wk low ’25-04-25 33.51 |
| ATH | 187.00 | +248.0% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 36.00 (-33.0%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 33.51–33.51.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 33.51 (-37.6%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to the next lower level (none computed).
- Trend vs S&P: (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Early Up ≥ 58.21 · Est. Down < 57.90.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-11-03 (https://assets.ark-funds.com/fund-documents/funds-etf-csv/ARK_INNOVATION_ETF_ARKK_HOLDINGS.csv (official ARK daily holdings CSV, date column 11/03/2026)); ETF weight 2.24%. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLK (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Short history (84 wks): under the 104 weekly bars of a full card. Checks that need more history (Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA) are left out of both the points earned and the points possible, and the score is rescaled to 0–100 (55 points computable). Trend shows N/A under 10 weekly bars or when fewer than 30 points can be computed. The 2-Friday confirmation uses the history that exists. Too little history for a 2-tool support band, so the support levels are single-tool levels. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
