COIN
Coinbase Global Inc -Class A
$145.45
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
ARKK holding · entry card
APPENDIX · COIN · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 0.0
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 0.0 + 0.0 = 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 0 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 0.0 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 0/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Neutral → 10-16 Neutral → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 9.2
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 0 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — negative & falling | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 6.7 / 20 |
| Raw | 9.2 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 9.2 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (COIN close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -14.76% | -16.24% | Est. Up ≥ 175.33 (+20.5%) · Early Up ≥ 169.44 · Est. Down < 168.54 |
| Trend · XLF | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -15.83% | -18.56% | Est. Up ≥ 175.64 (+20.8%) · Early Up ≥ 171.85 · Est. Down < 170.93 |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -9.67% | -7.62% | Early Up ≥ 160.84 · Est. Down < 159.98 |
| Trading · XLF | 5 Established Down (−) → | -12.80% | -9.82% | Early Up ≥ 166.21 · Est. Down < 165.32 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 145.45)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 158.46–161.18 | +8.9% to +10.8% | wk low 04-03 158.46 · wk low 2024-10-04 160.00 · wk low 09-18 161.18 |
| R2 | 152.58–152.70 | +4.9% to +5.0% | wk low 07-17 152.58 · wk low 02-27 152.70 |
| R1 | 146.02–147.88 | +0.4% to +1.7% | wk low 08-21 146.02 · wk low 06-05 147.88 |
| S1 | 139.11–142.58 | -2.0% to -4.4% | wk low ’25-04-11 142.58 · wk low 02-13 139.36 · wk low 06-26 139.18 · wk low 07-31 139.11 |
| ATH | 444.65 | +205.7% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 139.11 (-4.4%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor: no support nearby.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): No support nearby: only one support band exists below the price, so there is no separate trend stop.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 175.33 (+20.5%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 169.44 · Est. Down < 168.54 (+15.9%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Early Up ≥ 160.84 · Est. Down < 159.98.
Sluymer context
- 2026-09-15 chartbook: “COIN is oversold and beginning to bottom with 194 first resistance followed by 222 with the first extension level at 274.”
Notes & caveats
ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-11-03 (https://assets.ark-funds.com/fund-documents/funds-etf-csv/ARK_INNOVATION_ETF_ARKK_HOLDINGS.csv (official ARK daily holdings CSV, date column 11/03/2026)); ETF weight 3.76%. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLF (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
