$2.34
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
ARKK holding · entry card
APPENDIX · CERS · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 20.0
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 2.0 + 0.0 = 2.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 10 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 20.0 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 62.5
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 18.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 8 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive & rising | 25.0 / 25 |
| Band position | 11.5 / 20 |
| Raw | 62.5 (Early Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 62.5 Early Up |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (CERS close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (+) → | -9.60% | +5.68% | Early Up ≥ 2.49 · Est. Down < 2.48 |
| Trend · XLV | 5 Established Down (−) → | -17.90% | -0.03% | Early Up ≥ 2.73 · Est. Down < 2.72 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (−) → | +2.12% | -2.18% | Est. Up ≥ 2.31 (-1.3%) · Est. Down < 1.88 |
| Trading · XLV | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -1.54% | -4.09% | Est. Up ≥ 2.55 (+9.0%) · Early Up ≥ 2.39 · Est. Down < 2.38 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 2.34)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 3.08–3.15 | +31.6% to +34.6% | wk high 08-21 3.08 · wk high 05-29 3.13 · wk high 05-01 3.15 |
| R2 | 2.68–2.69 | +14.5% to +15.0% | wk high 03-06 2.68 · wk high 09-25 2.69 |
| R1 | 2.41–2.45 | +3.0% to +4.7% | wk low 06-19 2.41 · 200-day SMA 2.45 |
| S1 | 2.24–2.26 | -3.4% to -4.3% | wk high ’25-12-19 2.26 · wk high ’25-01-31 2.24 |
| S2 | 2.12–2.15 | -8.1% to -9.4% | wk high 04-17 2.15 · wk low 10-23 2.12 |
| S3 | 2.03–2.05 | -12.4% to -13.2% | wk low 02-13 2.05 · wk high 2024-11-15 2.03 |
| ATH | 8.87 | +279.1% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 2.24 (-4.3%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 2.12–2.15.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 2.12 (-9.4%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 2.03–2.05.
- Trend vs S&P: above its 16-wk avg ≥ 2.49 · Est. Down < 2.48 (+6.0%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 2.31 · Est. Down < 1.88.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-11-03 (https://assets.ark-funds.com/fund-documents/funds-etf-csv/ARK_INNOVATION_ETF_ARKK_HOLDINGS.csv (official ARK daily holdings CSV, date column 11/03/2026)); ETF weight 0.35%. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLV (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
