$131.82
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
ARKK holding · entry card
APPENDIX · BWXT · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 8.3
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 0.0 + 0.0 = 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 5 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 8.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 18.2
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 11.4 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 0 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — BOUNCE tag — oversold & turning up inside a down structure (no boost) | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 4.3 / 20 |
| Raw | 18.2 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 18.2 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (BWXT close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -13.33% | -3.61% | Early Up ≥ 149.65 · Est. Down < 148.86 |
| Trend · XLI | 5 Established Down (−) → | -10.07% | -4.40% | Early Up ≥ 144.77 · Est. Down < 144.00 |
| Trading · S&P | 2 Early Up (−) ↑ | +0.28% | -2.52% | Est. Up ≥ 139.37 (+5.7%) · Early Up ≥ 131.78 · Est. Down < 131.08 |
| Trading · XLI | 5 Established Down (−) → | -3.11% | -5.09% | Est. Up ≥ 157.12 (+19.2%) · Early Up ≥ 136.29 · Est. Down < 135.56 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 131.82)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 144.75–147.74 | +9.8% to +12.1% | wk high ’25-07-04 144.75 · wk high ’25-06-20 145.33 · wk high 10-09 147.00 · wk low 08-28 147.74 |
| R2 | 136.18–136.31 | +3.3% to +3.4% | wk low ’25-07-25 136.18 · wk high 2024-11-15 136.31 |
| R1 | 131.86–133.84 | +0.0% to +1.5% | wk low 10-02 131.86 · wk low ’25-07-11 133.84 |
| S1 | 128.00–129.51 | -1.8% to -2.9% | wk high ’25-01-24 129.51 · wk high 2024-10-25 128.00 |
| S2 | 114.05–115.65 | -12.3% to -13.5% | wk high ’25-02-14 115.65 · wk high ’25-05-02 114.41 · wk low 2024-11-08 114.05 |
| S3 | 110.59–111.16 | -15.7% to -16.1% | wk low ’25-01-17 111.16 · wk low ’25-01-03 110.59 |
| ATH | 241.82 | +83.4% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 128.00 (-2.9%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 114.05–115.65.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 114.05 (-13.5%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 110.59–111.16.
- Trend vs S&P: above its 16-wk avg ≥ 149.65 · Est. Down < 148.86 (+12.9%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 139.37 · Early Up ≥ 131.78 · Est. Down < 131.08.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-11-03 (https://assets.ark-funds.com/fund-documents/funds-etf-csv/ARK_INNOVATION_ETF_ARKK_HOLDINGS.csv (official ARK daily holdings CSV, date column 11/03/2026)); ETF weight 1.06%. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLI (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
