$22.96
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
ARKK holding · entry card
APPENDIX · BLSH · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 12.5
| Short history (64 wks): RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 4.6 + 2.3 |
| Structure (computable checks) | 0 / 25 |
| Score = points earned × 100 / 55 computable points | 12.5 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays, on the history that exists) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · – Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA n/a (short history) · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. |
Scores · Trading 23.6
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 3 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — negative & falling | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 18.1 / 20 |
| Raw | 23.6 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 23.6 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (BLSH close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 4 Early Down (−) → | -18.60% | -18.11% | Est. Up ≥ 29.88 (+30.1%) · Est. Down < 23.13 |
| Trend · XLK | 4 Early Down (−) → | -16.18% | -17.17% | Est. Up ≥ 28.97 (+26.2%) · Est. Down < 22.43 |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -16.44% | -17.74% | Early Up ≥ 27.39 · Est. Down < 27.24 |
| Trading · XLK | 5 Established Down (−) → | -13.58% | -13.77% | Early Up ≥ 26.53 · Est. Down < 26.39 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 22.96)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 36.36–37.42 | +58.4% to +63.0% | wk low 05-01 36.36 · wk high 09-04 37.10 · wk low 01-02 37.42 |
| R2 | 32.80–33.48 | +42.9% to +45.8% | wk low 04-03 32.80 · wk high 02-20 33.48 |
| R1 | 31.62–32.18 | +37.7% to +40.2% | wk low 09-18 31.62 · 40-wk SMA 31.69 · 200-day SMA 32.18 |
| S1 | 21.76–21.76 | -5.2% to -5.2% | wk low 06-26 21.76 |
| S2 | 20.55–20.55 | -10.5% to -10.5% | wk low 07-31 20.55 |
| ATH | 118.00 | +413.9% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 21.76 (-5.2%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 20.55–20.55.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 20.55 (-10.5%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to the next lower level (none computed).
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 29.88 (+30.1%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 29.88 · Est. Down < 23.13 (+0.7%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Early Up ≥ 27.39 · Est. Down < 27.24.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-11-03 (https://assets.ark-funds.com/fund-documents/funds-etf-csv/ARK_INNOVATION_ETF_ARKK_HOLDINGS.csv (official ARK daily holdings CSV, date column 11/03/2026)); ETF weight 1.41%. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLK (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Short history (64 wks): under the 104 weekly bars of a full card. Checks that need more history (Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA) are left out of both the points earned and the points possible, and the score is rescaled to 0–100 (55 points computable). Trend shows N/A under 10 weekly bars or when fewer than 30 points can be computed. The 2-Friday confirmation uses the history that exists. Too little history for a 2-tool support band, so the support levels are single-tool levels. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
