$250.69
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
ARKK holding · entry card
APPENDIX · AMZN · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 27.2
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 0.0 + 2.3 = 2.3 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 14 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 27.2 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Neutral → 10-02 Neutral → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Neutral → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 42.4
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 15.4 + 1.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 8 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — negative & falling | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 15.5 / 20 |
| Raw | 42.4 (Early Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 42.4 Early Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (AMZN close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -4.92% | -2.85% | Est. Up ≥ 256.43 (+2.3%) · Early Up ≥ 253.56 · Est. Down < 252.21 |
| Trend · XLY | 4 Early Down (−) → | -6.78% | -6.29% | Est. Up ≥ 259.25 (+3.4%) · Est. Down < 248.20 |
| Trading · S&P | 2 Early Up (+) ↑ | +0.83% | +4.89% | Est. Up ≥ 254.28 (+1.4%) · Early Up ≥ 249.26 · Est. Down < 247.93 |
| Trading · XLY | 5 Established Down (+) → | -2.68% | +1.84% | Est. Up ≥ 314.02 (+25.3%) · Early Up ≥ 257.59 · Est. Down < 256.21 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 250.69)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 274.75–278.56 | +9.6% to +11.1% | wk high 05-29 274.75 · wk high 05-08 278.56 |
| R2 | 265.34–267.56 | +5.8% to +6.7% | wk high 10-23 265.34 · wk high 08-28 267.56 |
| R1 | 255.19–259.49 | +1.8% to +3.5% | wk low 05-22 255.19 · wk high 07-17 258.08 · wk high ’25-11-07 258.60 · wk high 09-25 259.49 |
| S1 | 241.60–248.94 | -0.7% to -3.6% | wk high 01-16 248.94 · wk high 01-30 247.78 · wk low 10-02 244.73 · wk low 09-18 244.30 · 200-day SMA 243.50 · 40-wk SMA 243.32 · wk high ’25-02-07 242.52 · 50% 241.60 |
| S2 | 233.00–238.97 | -4.7% to -7.1% | wk high ’25-12-05 238.97 · wk high ’25-09-12 238.85 · wk high ’25-08-01 236.53 · wk high ’25-08-15 234.08 · wk low 06-12 233.59 · wk high 2024-12-20 233.00 |
| S3 | 224.70–230.84 | -7.9% to -10.4% | 61.8% 230.84 · wk high ’25-01-10 228.84 · wk high ’25-10-10 228.25 · wk low 01-23 226.88 · wk low 07-31 226.16 · wk low ’25-01-31 225.86 · wk low 06-26 225.55 · wk low 01-02 224.70 |
| ATH | 287.20 | +14.6% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 241.60 (-3.6%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 233.00–238.97.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 233.00 (-7.1%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 224.70–230.84.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 256.43 (+2.3%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 253.56 · Est. Down < 252.21 (+0.6%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 254.28 · Early Up ≥ 249.26 · Est. Down < 247.93.
Sluymer context
- 2026-10-06 chartbook: “AMZN has pulled back to support near its 50% retracement (right chart) with early signs of bottoming.”
- 2026-10-13 chartbook: “AMZN is bottoming near its 50-62% retracement band between 230-241. 45”
Notes & caveats
ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-11-03 (https://assets.ark-funds.com/fund-documents/funds-etf-csv/ARK_INNOVATION_ETF_ARKK_HOLDINGS.csv (official ARK daily holdings CSV, date column 11/03/2026)); ETF weight 2.38%. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLY (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
